XpressBlog
WHEN IT LOOKS TO GOOD TO BE TRUE 2010-09-03
I know what you’re thinking. No horse—even the second coming of Secretariat—deserves to be 1 to 4. (We’ll save the discussion over the most recent coming of Secretariat—the Movie—for another column…when we’ve actually seen the movie and aren’t responding to rumors, innuendo and our relentless desire in this business to tear down before we’ve even had a chance to build up).
In 99 percent of the situations I’ve encountered in horse racing, I would agree, there’s no such thing as a sure thing. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. Never take a short price on a horse doing something he or she has never done before. But see, there’s part of the problem right there. Quality Road in Saturday’s Woodward Stakes isn’t doing something he hasn’t done before. Racing at Saratoga? Check. Racing at a mile and an eighth? Double check. Running against grade one competition? Check, check, and check most recently in the Metropolitan. Coming off a loss? Check, check…well, you get the picture. Throw all the clichés out the window; if ever a horse deserved to be 1 to 4 (have you ever seen 1 to 4 on a morning line? I haven’t. We’ll also save the discussion on morning lines for another column) this is probably the horse.
To be totally honest, I did try to beat him. It’s a seven horse field and, at Saratoga especially, stranger things have happened. Starting with the rail and working my way out, I looked carefully at every horse. (If you’re going to back David over Goliath, you better know that he at least has a slingshot and some kind of aim). While there are some very nice horses in the Woodward, horses I would love to own even a small piece of on any given day, I would argue that Saturday may not be the best of days.
On the rail, Convocation is coming off an allowance win at Saratoga, he’s graded stakes placed and trained by the son of not just “a” giant killer, but “the” giant killer. Allen’s son Jimmy Jerkens bagged some big game of his own last weekend when he took down the Travers Stakes with Afleet Express. If you forced me at gunpoint to pick someone other than Quality Road in the Woodward, it would probably be Convocation. But Quality Road beat Convocation by seven lengths in the Metropolitan three months ago. Even if Convocation is better now than he was then, and Quality Road has lost a step (which I don’t believe he has), I can’t see him turning the tables.
Mine That Bird is the only other grade I winner in the field, having won the Kentucky Derby last year over a sloppy track. That win remains his only graded stakes victory on a traditional dirt track. Even with a Hall of Fame trainer in D. Wayne Lukas and the addition of blinkers, in my opinion it would take Hurricane Earl and then some, to get the gelding back to the winner’s circle at Saratoga on Saturday.
From a pace and horse for course angle, Arcodoro is mildly interesting. In his only try at a mile and an eighth, the son of Medaglia D’Oro went comfortably gate to wire a little over a month ago at Saratoga. The win was the second of his career in 11 starts. Quality Road’s career best Beyer Speed Figure to date is 121. Arcordo’s career best Beyer Speed Figure—earned in that Saratoga race, 90. The only other apparent speed in the Woodward is Quality Road. Both Todd Pletcher and Johnny Velasquez have suggested Quality Road is better with a target to run at; the target? Arcodoro.
Give the connections of Indian Dance, Tranquil Manner and Mythical Power a nod for sportsmanship and filling an otherwise painfully small field. All three horses are home-breds; well managed by their connections whom, I’m guessing, will be thrilled to hit the board in this historic, grade I event. Mythical Power has at least hit triple digits with his Beyer—103 in the grade III Texas Mile. The Bob Baffert-trained son of Congaree has some class, but he’s also not in Texas anymore.
You can slice it and dice it, look at it from just about every angle, but the answer is still the same. Barring some unforeseen, extremely unfortunate circumstance, Quality Road is by far and away, lengths and speed figures the best in the Woodward. If you take away Zenyatta and Blame, this year he’s earned more, done more, beaten more and accomplished more than anyone else in the country. There are those that will argue his head defeat at short odds last out in the grade I Whitney is proof of his non-invinceablity. I would counter that it was a head loss to an extremely good horse many were unfairly underrating, that Johnny Velasquez has as much as conceded he would take a mulligan if he could, and that with a very few exceptions (Personal Ensign and Zenyatta come to mind), even the very best get beat once in a while. Odds are very much against them getting beat twice in a row, though.
If there’s any consolation to the lack of betting intrigue in the Woodward, it’s the depth and breadth of the grade I Forego. Strategically placed just one race prior to the big one, the 7-furlong dash draws a ten horse field, nine betting interests, from which a strong case can be built for virtually half the field. Bribon, Big Drama, Warriors Reward and Checklist, for my money, are all worthy challengers to the favorite. The winner of the Forego will most likely exit the race a primary contender for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, a fitting prelude to the Woodward, which is sure to provide redemption for one of the top older horses in the nation in Quality Road.
Go deep in the Forego, perhaps, but single Quality Road in the Woodward. Every once in a while, when something looks too good to be true, it turns out to be true after all.
SEPTEMBER MEANS SOMETHING NEW 2010-09-01
By Jeremy Plonk
Host of XpressBet RaceChat
It’s opening weekend across campuses nationwide this week as the 2010 college football schedule hits high gear. Next week, cities coast-to-coast get reenergized for opening week of the National Football League slate. There’s something about this time of year that energizes sports fans.
But in horse racing, it’s like the air will be let out of the balloon this week. Saratoga and Del Mar say goodbye to the racing landscape over the next few days, and there’s always a heavy dose of sadness in the air when they do. For casual horseplayers, it’s a quiet time without the lure of major meets and races. For serious horseplayers, many take a short respite to replenish their bankrolls or enjoy other endeavors.
For me, September has become a month of experimentation between the end of the summer glamour meets and the beginning of Oak Tree and Keeneland. It’s a time to try something different in handicapping and see how it works for me over a short haul that’s just long enough to get the feel for its effectiveness.
Even if you’re cutting back for the next few weeks, the days you do play, try something new. Tracks like Remington Park are in high gear right now early in their seasons and offer tremendous field sizes and highly competitive racing. It’s as good of a superfecta venue (including 10-centers) as there is in America. And, we offer XpressBet RaceChat bonus coverage Wednesday nights with Remington Park, which gives horseplayers a personal sidekick in learning that circuit if it’s new.
With Monmouth and Saratoga softening their grip on the mid-Atlantic, the action at places like Laurel Park (which opens Sept. 11), Delaware Park and Philadelphia Park will be as good or better right now than at any point all season. Woodbine gets particularly strong in its stakes menu this month seizing the scheduling opportunity, and they run on Wednesday nights in addition to weekday racing. That allows players of all time allotments to find a window to give that track a sampling this month.
Fans of 2-year-old racing could flock to Calder, where baby races make up a much larger percentage of the action than at any other venue in America, especially in late summer/early fall. If you’re considering Fair Grounds this fall, why not plunge into Louisiana Downs for a brief run in September and start making yourself a horses-to-watch list for early in the FG stand? The same can be said for Turfway Park leading into the upcoming Keeneland meeting. You may not be a big Turfway fan historically, but some homework there could pay big dividends when a meet like Keeneland rolls around and you become more interested.
We’ll have our eyes and ears in XpressBet RaceChat throughout September on Belmont and Fairplex for those of you wishing to remain in the comforts of New York and Southern California racing. But do yourself a favor and try something new this month and see if you don’t reenergize yourself with something that puts a bounce in your step like opening day on the gridiron.
Fresh is good, whether it’s pigskins or ponies.
A Labor of Love 2010-08-31
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
For those of us who work in horse racing, Labor Day means we “work”.
Due to its seasonal nature, full time jobs are few and far between. For many, it can be a nomadic lifestyle, bouncing from track to track, often state to state, to make ends meet.
For the seasonal employees, there are no benefits or paid vacations.
When I take a day “off”, I have to pay others to “cover” me.
Days off are expensive!
So why do we do it?
Like I often tell people, I turned my hobby into my job.
It beats digging ditches for a living.
This isn’t a job, it’s a career.
In 18 years, I can count on one hand how many times I felt like not going to work. Okay, maybe two hands.
For years, others in the game would tell me that my enthusiasm would flicker, than eventually I would just accept horse racing for what it is, take my paycheck, and settle.
That’s not me. That’s not the way I’m built.
I continue to share my enthusiasm for the game through various outlets, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
My passion will always be education -- RaceChats, Night Schools, park seminars, private group instruction, paddock tours and Facebook. The list goes on and on.
It’s Labor Day weekend, and this is what I do.
WIN - WIN WEEKEND 2010-08-27
After several weeks on the road, it’s nice to have a weekend at home in Kentucky, curled up in front of my television set, one hand on the remote (flipping between TVG and HRTV), the other on the lap top (homepage XpressBet). Through the miracles of technology, the next best place to being at the racetrack on a big day or weekend is being at home. And what a weekend it will be! Beginning with an exceptionally deep and interesting Travers card at Saratoga, the action continues straight thru Del Mar and the Pacific Classic, all culminating with the Personal Ensign Sunday afternoon once again at the Spa.
As if the action itself isn’t enough, the races arguably feature some of the brightest stars on the racing scene—Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver in the Travers, Rachel Alexandra in the Personal Ensign. The Pacific Classic sports a ten horse field that rounds out the top older males in the nation beneath Blame and Quality Road. With a rare nod to parity, we actually have an opportunity to see some of the best males and the best females, all at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. Hopefully the respective tests will provide some momentary clarity within various divisions and, simultaneously, set the stage for some ultimate show-downs at Churchill Downs the first weekend in November.
Of course, there are the usual assortment of multiple race wagers, one more intriguing and challenging than the next. Discretion will be the better part of valor this weekend though, when it comes to wagering; pick and choose the types of wagers you make as carefully as you pick and choose the actual horses on which you wager or you could find yourself in a deep hole in a hurry. The $1 million guaranteed all-graded-stakes Pick 4 at Saratoga on Saturday is enticing, but if you’re like me and believe you’d have to wager close to the million just to hit the thing, then you’re better off playing individual races or narrowing the multiple race wagers down a bit.
I’ll certainly be playing some of the individual races at Saratoga on Saturday, all the while making sure I have at least a small bundle stashed away for the Pacific Classic. Blame it on the sea air, but admittedly, I struggle annually handicapping-wise at Del Mar, and this year is no exception. My “dime a day” wagers thru XpressBet have, so far left me, well, dimeless. Hopefully practice will pay off, and if it can be in the Pacific Classic, even better. Just in case I can’t do it on my own, I will be closely watching and listening to both the NTRA’s streaming video and TVG’s all day coverage, as the extra information—especially interviews with trainers and insight on track conditions-- can only help.
By the time the Pacific Classic rolls around, I’ll have a hunch whether or not things are going well as I’ll be half-way through the Travers--Personal Ensign double. Beyond the stars aligning, a few things have to go into place to make any double wager worth trying. First of all, you need to have a strong opinion in at least one of the two races. A strong opinion in both races is even better. Second, you have to believe there are vulnerable favorites. For everyone reading this who doesn’t think Rachel Alexandra can get beat, skip ahead as you probably don’t want to play the Travers—Personal Ensign double. There are countless other wagers to consider, but the reward for any double using Rachel Alexandra on the end is probably not worth the risk.
I may be in the minority of people who actually think Rachel Alexandra is currently just as good as she was last year, and I feel her last two races were some of her better efforts. I’m as excited as the mob who showed up to see her school in the Saratoga paddock, to see her run Sunday. Once and for all, any questions about her ability on the grade I level at a mile and a quarter can be answered. If she wins, it may be on to the Breeders’ Cup Classic and, regardless, it’ll be great for the sport. But if she doesn’t win, it may be great for my bankroll as I’m also part of a group who feels at this level, she may be vulnerable at the mile and a quarter. With competition like Life At Ten, this will be one of the truest tests to date for Rachel Alexandra, and by betting against her in the double, I put myself in a win—win proposition (okay, not financially, but still, I’ll be happy either way).
Before the Personal Ensign, though, there’s still the Travers to get through, and it’s far from a cake-walk. At first glance, I can’t say this year’s Travers is one of the most quality-laden fields I’ve ever seen. But one would be hard pressed to find a better betting race for 3-year-olds this side of the Kentucky Derby. At 7-2, A Little Warm is an aptly named lukewarm favorite. An exciting “late” bloomer who missed the Derby on account of earnings, it may well turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to the colt. Rested from the Louisiana Derby in March until late June, the son of Stormin Fever returned to post back to back wins including the grade II Jim Dandy over Miners Reserve and has vaulted to the upper echelon of the 3-year-old division; a win in the Travers would cement his standing there.
For the record, my top choice in the Travers is First Dude (8-1 on the morning line) who adds blinkers, should have no problem with the distance and may be one of only a couple horses in the field with true early speed. First Dude was my pick in the Preakness and he did everything except win. At that point, for his next two I was off his bandwagon, but now in at the mile and a quarter, with blinkers and not a lot of early speed, he might be in the perfect spot. I’ll watch the tote board and look at the horses in the paddock for the rest of the ticket, but it will most likely also include Trappe Shot, Admiral Alex (yes, longest shot on the board—I think he can get the distance, I don’t think the field is that superior, and that’s what you hope for!), and Friend or Foe.
Much like Rachel Alexandra, A Little Warm’s ability at a mile and a quarter is, for me, a question mark. While he’s run very well at distances up to a mile and an eighth, I just haven’t seen anything that makes me believe he can be equally effective going farther. By eliminating both favorites from both ends of the double, the Travers—Personal Ensign wager becomes an extremely attractive proposition—almost as exciting as the racing and the horses themselves. That’s a win a win for everybody!
TAKE ME OUT TO THE BALLGAME 2010-08-25
By Jeremy Plonk
Host of XpressBet RaceChat
My annual trip to Williamsport, Pa. for the Little League World Series yesterday surely brought back some memories of days gone by on the sandlot. But it spurred the mind more about the future than the past. The well-oiled machine that is Little League brightly illustrates what can be done with a central, authoritative body running a sport.
With more than 7,000 officially sanctioned leagues swinging in over 100 countries, Little League plays on a proverbial diamond far more diverse and challenging than that of American Thoroughbred racing. In our sport, we complain that the 30 or so state-wide racing commissions will never agree on uniform rules, much less individually owned track and side entities collaborating for a common good.
Little League is a powerful display of corporate sponsorship, television intrigue and good, old fashioned fun. They take themselves seriously at this championship level, to be sure, but it’s with absolutely no pretenses and with no pressure on the consumer to have it jammed down their throats. Admission? How about free. Volunteers come around with cans during the second inning of games and there’s no hard sell. I tossed $5 in once during the day in which we took in four games, and felt no pressure while feeling like I was doing something noble, even if I was a cheapskate. But I did feel a sense of "want" in support, and purchased plenty of vending and souvenirs to mark the occasion, all of which went to the bottom line of the organization.
The two playing venues, Lamade Stadium and Volunteer Stadium, are clean, pristine and downright spectacular. The atmosphere rates as fun and inviting. Go once and you absolutely cannot wait to go back again. We’ve been doing it year-after-year since first visiting.
Corporate sponsors like Kellogg’s and Dick’s Sporting Goods make for natural partners of youth sports, and their presence is rather obvious on the ground in Williamsport. But in our society, no one blushes at such advertising as it’s not only accepted, it’s expected, in sports. In fact, go to a major sporting event and NOT see corporate advertising and most discerning minds will think, “Wow, can’t they sell this product to anyone?” Very few deals have been struck corporately in partnership with racing, and in this trying economy, there’s some excuse for that. But it’s potential to carry a heavy portion the bottom line has been largely missed to date. The fact that corporate sponsorship has been seen as distracting and unholy in some corners of racing is as wrong as it is laughable.
Little League certainly has a built-in edge over horse racing when it comes to the feel-good factor, both in terms of television presentation and the appeal to corporate sponsors. But its acceptance of technology and change cannot be underestimated either. Instant replay is used and volunteer (yes, volunteer!) umpires are sometimes corrected on national television, but far less often than you might expect. Exact pitch counts now limit how much a young arm can be pressured into pitching today, and subsequently tomorrow and the next day. It’s a protective measure that everyone agrees is the right thing to do, much like we’d all agree in protecting our racehorses. But notice the resistance we meet in racing when policy is suggested and attempted to be implemented.
From the regulation of equipment to how much you have to play your worst player, nearly every detail of Little League baseball is as uniform as the crisp, sharp unis the kids wear on the field. It’s also a heck of a lot of fun to attend.
Those are two lessons we in horse racing could take to work with us as well. Uniformity and fun make for great competition and great fan bases.
More Million Memories 2010-08-24
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
Last week I re-lived some of my most vivid Arlington Million memories, and you can push this year’s edition near the top of that list – it was an instant classic.
Every Million Day is memorable at some level, but this one exceeded most.
Dubussy’s unlikely rail skimming score in the Million earns “play of the day” honors, but this Festival will be remembered most for its Beverly D. The stars aligned for Arlington chairman Richard L. Duchossois, and he won the race he cherishes most with Eclaire de Lune.
Paddy O’Prado won like he was supposed to, Éclair de Lune got the perfect pace set up, and $14.80 was a gift on the win end. A race that looked like a roll of the dice on paper, mindlessly boiled down to using the second and third finishers from a strong G3 Modesty as the Exacta.
I had a live $40 Festival Pick Three live to Gio Ponti in the Million, and at the eighth pole, I was counting my winnings. Somehow Gio Ponti managed to lose – AGAIN. His sixth defeat in his last seven starts, and he has an excuse for every one!
Ramon Dominguez has received some wrongful criticism for his Million ride. Rated in last, Gio Ponti was forced to swing 7-wide in the stretch. He passed his rivals, including the pacesetter Tazeez, like they were standing still. Neither horse nor rider saw the rail skimming Debussy until they had blown past, but Dominguez didn’t “fall asleep”. He kept busy on Gio all the way down to the wire.
If you watch some of Gio Ponti’s prior races, he does have the tendency to slow down once he makes the lead. He did it in last year’s Million, but none of those rivals closed with the force of Debussy.
Gio Ponti’s team is looking at a couple different options, with the Goodwood in Southern California and the Woodbine Mile chief amongst them. Gio is a multiple G1 winner over ten furlongs, but it’s quite possible that a mile is actually his best distance. In such a race, he can bide his time at the back of the pack, time his run, and get up in time. There is no fear of making the lead “too early”. He’d certainly be chalk in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile.
Secretariat winner Paddy O’Prado is really good, but he’s not quite the quality of Dale Romans former turf superstar Kitten’s Joy. Romans is mapping out a plan that includes the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic as a springboard to the Breeders’ Cup Turf, where he could lock horns with Arlington Million winner Debussy.
Debussy, who appears to relish the American-style turf course, will get a soft prep overseas for trainer John Gosden before raiding Churchill in early November.
Pick 4 Fun in the Windy City 2010-08-20
For the past several years, one of my very favorite assignments for HRTV is covering the Arlington Million. It’s not just that the event plays out in my hometown, Arlington Heights/Palatine, Illinois at one of the grandest racetracks in North America, Arlington Park. It’s not just because I’ve seen nearly every Arlington Million in person from the inaugural running, through the Miracle Million following the fire and the transplanted Million at Woodbine, or even the fact that my husband and I got engaged in the Arlington paddock just prior to the horses entering the track for the 1989 Arlington Million. No, the biggest reason I love covering Arlington Million Day—great turf racing and great betting.
Annually, some of the top horses, horsemen and jockeys come in from around the nation and around the world. Even if the European invaders competing in the Secretariat, Beverly D. and Arlington Million don’t end up in the Breeders’ Cup just a couple months later, you at least have an opportunity to see how Euro form stacks up against North America. And it’s odds on at least a few of the runners and connections you see in the big three races WILL compete again on racing’s biggest days.
This year, all but one of the twelve races on Saturday’s card at Arlington are on the grass, and while forecasts are for a slight chance of light showers, as of Friday morning there was nothing but blue sky and green, firm grass. I may be biased, but in my opinion (and the opinion of many horsemen I’ve spoken with), Arlington Park owns one of the best turf courses in the nation with an established grass system, sweeping turns and plenty of room for horses to rally and jockeys to race ride. This isn’t to say horses can’t win on the front end over the Arlington lawn—in fact many have so far this season. It just seems that horses are able to run more true to form, particularly the Europeans.
Anyone with a passion for turf racing should have a field day with the Arlington Million program, and those who like multiple race wagers should also be in Heaven. There’s an all stakes pick four linking the grade III Stars N Stripes (the 7th race on the card) with the trio of grade I’s—the Secretariat (race 8), the Beverly D. (race 9) and the Arlington Million (race 10). To anyone wagering on the card and looking for value as well as opportunity, this particular pick four is a great place to start as there is at least one single and at least one race where anyone could win it all.
The Secretariat will be the key race on my pick 4 ticket. Before travelling to Chicago, I was impressed with Paddy O Prado and considered him one of the top 3-year-olds in the nation on any surface. His back to back wins in Virginia, the most recent of these at the mile and a quarter solidified his credentials as an outstanding grass horse. Nothing I’ve seen since I’ve arrived in Chicago has done anything to sway my opinion. Despite what some might label a tough campaign so far this year (the first two legs of the Triple Crown followed by back to back round trips from Louisville to Virginia during one of the hottest summers on record), Paddy O Prado looks in great shape physically. He’s held his weight, his coat is healthy and gleaming and he appeared a happy horse galloping over Arlington’s polytrack Friday morning. Paddy O Prado is my single on my pick 4 ticket.
I have a strong opinion in the Arlington Million but believe it’s far from a one horse race. While defending race champ Gio Ponti enters the Million this year every bit as good (in my opinion as well as his trainer, Christophe Clement’s) as last year, he’s trying to make history. No horse has ever won the Million two years in a row—not even John Henry. (He won it twice, but suffered defeat in between). Gio Ponti will definitely be on my ticket and most likely my only US horse, I’ll look overseas for the upset possibilities.
While the Europeans appear to be a slight cut below grade I—at least in Europe—it’s always a mistake to count them out when racing in Arlington Heights. When trying to handicap European form, I look at the connections almost as closely as the horses themselves. Luca Cumani, the trainer of Summit Surge, won the Arlington Million a few years back and is essentially, a regular. Any time he brings a horse to Chicago that horse must be respected and, with the addition of Lasix on Saturday, will definitely be on my ticket.
John Gosden, who started his professional training career in the US before shifting overseas, is as experienced a horseman as you’ll come across. He brings a pair in to this year’s Million, the Irish-bred Debussy and Shadwell Stable’s Tazeez. Both horses competed in the prestigious Prince of Wales’s at Ascot (Tazeez finishing the better of the two in third). Both gain the medication Lasix for their respective US debuts. Both will be on my pick 4 ticket, although I give a slight edge to Debussy as he’s been ridden steadily by Gosden’s main rider, young William Buick and looks very well on the track at Arlington, seemingly nonplussed by the transatlantic trip.
For the remaining two races, I’ll go as deep as my wallet will allow. With nine horses remaining in the Beverly D. (Rainbow View is out), and my top pick, Eclaire de Lune listed originally at 5-1 in the morning line, I’ll use the entire field and hope for a long-shot, something definitely within the range of possibilities. In the first leg, the Stars N Stripes, I’ll definitely include Clement’s “other” horse, Armstrong Mill, and I’ll wait until seeing the horses, the weather conditions and how the day has played so far before making a final decision on any others I’ll include. If I get past the first leg of the Pick 4, I’ll feel very confident about the remaining three races. If I don’t get past the first leg of the Pick 4? I’ll still have a lot of fun covering Arlington Million Day, not to mention a couple races after the Million, to get back out of the hole!
FAST TIMES GUARANTEED THURSDAY 2010-08-18
By Jeremy Plonk
Host of XpressBet RaceChat
With all due respect to my good friends at Keeneland, “Racing as it was meant to be” takes place on Thursday of this week at Ruidoso Downs. You’ll find no argument with me that Keeneland is how the game should look and feel, as it’s my favorite destination in America. But for pure racing and what it means to be the best horse on the track, do yourself a favor and take in the 20 trials for the All American Futurity.
That’s right, 20 trials.
In an era when filling fields to the point that the late pick 4 at least looks attractive, the prestigious All American Futurity has lured 196 juveniles on a single card to compete. The goal is not to just win, but to be among the 10-fastest horses competing all day and earn a trip to the $2 million final on Labor Day. Thursday’s purses are a mere $3,500 each; it’s the lure of the big carrot in 17 days.
You see, the All American Futurity trials are the purest sense of two things. First, it exemplifies the age-old challenge that “my horse is faster than your horse.” It’s the root of everything horse racing was based upon. Second, this truly is “win and you’re in” or a playoff in team sports parlance. You can’t buy your way into the $2 million final on Labor Day; you can’t get appointed by some panel. Run fast, faster than 186 other horses, or go the heck home and shut up.
XpressBet offers wagering on the All American Futurity trials, and Ruidoso Downs racing in general. As someone who has played the AQHA races for two decades, let me give a few helpful hints. One, your value will be in the win pool and the trifecta/superfecta pools. There’s not a ton bet, so playing multi-race wagers often leaves you with a feeling that you didn’t get enough return on pick 3s and the like, as compared to the relative win odds. Keep your wagers intra-race, and don’t sleep on quinellas. They may sound hokey to experienced players, but time and time again, you’ll see that novice players at Ruidoso are in the quinella pools, and often they pay much better than the equivalent $1 exacta. Why not get more for the same bet, right?
If you need help playing the All American Futurity trials, don’t worry. We’ve got your covered. Regular XpressBet RaceChat host Jerry Shottenkirk, the track morning line maker at Remington Park, will be hosting a live chat/analysis session throughout the 7-1/2 hour marathon, alongside noted AQHA handicapper Terry Turrell. I’ll be popping in myself early in the day and then switching over to Del Mar RaceChat duties when that card commences.
Because of space limitations and our existing Saratoga/Del Mar RaceChats on Thursday, we’ll provide a hot link in both chats as to where you can land in the All American Futurity trials live chat. Simply go to XpressBet.com and enter the RaceChat page and look for a link within the Saratoga/Del Mar chats.
Fuel up those XpressBet accounts Thursday for a 20-race marathon of “can you top this?” Keep one eye on the clock and another on your account balance as you find out that something new can be something very profitable and exciting!
-end-
A Million Reasons to Love Saturday at Arlington 2010-08-17
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
It’s not the Kentucky Derby or the Breeders’ Cup, but undoubtedly one of the highlights of my personal racing season is Arlington Million Day.
In 1981, when it was the first of its kind, the million-dollar purse was a big deal. It has since been equaled by the Triple Crown races, and dwarfed by the Breeders’ Cup and Dubai World Cup, but the Arlington Million remains special.
In most cases, Arlington doesn’t attract the big guns from Europe, but the International Festival does have a worldly flavor every year. Four of the last ten Million winners were puddle jumpers.
I’ve witnessed roughly 15 Arlington Millions in person. I can’t claim John Henry, but I’ve seen the replay a dozen times and STILL think The Bart beat the legend in the famous inaugural running.
In ’93 the long awaited match-up between Lure and Star of Cozzene was doomed by an EVA outbreak, rain and a super boggy course. The former scratched, and the latter won a snoozer.
The following season, Paradise Creek, one of the most impressive physical equine specimens I have ever laid eyes on, powered to victory.
In ’00 in what turned out to be a one-year experiment, the purse was boosted to $2 million with the hopes of drawing a star-studded International cast, but instead Chester House defeated just six rivals.
In what was the most bizarre Million ever run, the ’03 edition went to Storming Home, but that turf star was disqualified for zig-zagging in the stretch. He dumped Gary Stevens past the wire, and the Hall of Famer suffered multiple injuries, including a collapsed lung.
The next year, another unlikely disqualification occurred. Jockey Jamie Spencer fell asleep at the wheel, allowing much the best Powerscourt to drift in down the stretch. Kent Desormeaux did a wonderful acting job about Kicken Kris, whose tank was empty, and was rewarded with the Million trophy. The very next year Powerscourt would make amends, this time with a more polished Keiren Fallon astride.
In ’06 The Tin Man proved his 8-year-old heart was strong as ever in his Million wire job. He nearly became the first horse to win consecutive Millions the following year, but Jambalaya Jazz took advantage of a perfect, pocket trip to pull the upset.
Last year Gio Ponti defeated perhaps the deepest Million field ever, and on Saturday he will defend his title. I’ll be surprised if he loses, BUT as Arlington Million history tells us – expect the unexpected!
Hey, Judge, don’t forget us! 2010-08-11
By Jeremy Plonk
XpressBet RaceChat Host
I had a rare Saratoga appearance last week as host of XpressBet RaceChat, and quickly I learned things aren’t much different at the Spa than they are at Del Mar.
The stewards don’t care about us horseplayers on either coast, or in-between for that matter.
Now, don’t let this come off as sour grapes about a disqualification that cost me big bucks. It didn’t, and really hasn’t. I don’t have too many memories of DQs that drained my wallet. Sometimes I recall getting favorable put-ups on horses who were second and I fortuitously collected the cash. So it’s not about that.
It’s about legislating what you can’t see.
There’s a horrendous rule in play everywhere, employed by stewards off all makes and models, that says they can lean on a disqualification or non-disqualification if, in their judgment, the said foul did not impact the finish of the race. That sounds all well and good, and well-intending.
But it has no place in the game because of exotic wagering. And when you consider that exotic wagers make up the bulk of monies bet on each horse race, it really has no place.
The glaring example of this ruling being so egregious occurred last Friday at Saratoga in Race 5. Eventual winner Pelican Lake was angled out at the quarter pole by Shaun Bridgmohan while making his move, and hit dueling She Wears The Best so hard that announcer Tom Durkin paused in his call and delivered the news. Pelican Lake went on to a rather handy and easy score, while She Wears The Best finished fourth.
Clearly, undeniably, Pelican Lake was running by She Wears The Best and there’s no dispute that bump did not impact which order those two runners finished. Even 440 yards out from the wire (a quarter-mile), I think the spirit of that rule could have been surmised.
But there’s no way on Planet Earth the stewards could have ruled that She Wears The Best could not have outfinished Rani Baba and Karen’s Joy for the second or third-place money. At the time of the foul, she was abreast with those runners when the eventual winner forced herself between them and struck her. For She Wears The Best to maintain fourth place down the lane after a massive swipe like that, no matter what the margins were between second, third and fourth from that point forward, serves notice to a horse that did not have a chance to run her best race for a higher placing.
The stewards completely disregarded all place, show, exacta, trifecta and superfecta money bet on that race simply because they felt the winner was best and they didn’t want to take down a winner and place them behind a horse who could not have beaten the winner.
Any jockey will tell you, when a horse is fouled that hard, often they lose their wind. If you’ve played any contact sports, or even wrestled with your kids on the carpet, you know what it’s like to get the wind knocked out of you. There’s no way stewards 100 feet above the track in an air-conditioned office looking at TVs can tell if that happened. Nor can they play soothsayer, crystal ball reader, or God for that matter, and predict what might have happened in a race that still had 440 yards to run.
But they did see a foul. A very blatant and dangerous foul at that.
Shaun Bridgmohan likely could get a suspension for endangering Edgar Prado, and we’ve seen many times that riders get “days” when there are no disqualifications.
It’s a crying shame the stewards don’t look out for horseplayers as much as they do the horsemen involved. When it comes to horseplayers, there’s so much more to consider between winners and losers than just who finished first.
I am traditionally untraditional. 2010-08-10
I know horseracing is the “sport of kings”, but this is 2010, and we live in America.
When I tell industry executives some of my ideas, they look at me like I’m from outer space.
I’m the guy that wants more time between the Triple Crown races, remember?
That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Were I the czar of racing, there are so many things I would change or implement.
Let’s start with wagering. Who came up with the term “partial wheel’? Could it be any more confusing when new fans are trying to learn how to construct an exotics ticket?
During the course of my teachings, the “students” have unknowingly rebranded partial wheels as “with” bets.
Once I teach people that they can actually build tickets strategically, the bulb in their head lights up.
I can’t tell you how many times people will come up to me and say “can you help me do that ‘with’ bet”?
“With” separates positioning of horses in wagers.
Instead of telling a clerk – “give me a $1 exacta ‘partial wheel’ 2-4 with 2-3-4-6”, just simply teach people to say “give me a $1 exacta ‘with bet’ 2-4 with 2-3-4-6”.
In wagering, the word “with” has meaning, the term “partial wheel” is confusing.
Here’s another one. Why not make the odds for upcoming races available to the wagering public?
If I look up the eighth race at Arlington on XpressBet, why can’t I see the current odds, no matter what time it is?
As soon as wagering opens in the morning, people are betting. The pools might be small, but there are odds. Getting an early look at where the money is going would give players potential insight how to construct multi-race wagers.
I’m a big believer that the morning line odds should be done BEFORE the races are set. In other words, give the odds maker all the races for a particular day, let them calculate the figures, and THEN position the races strategically. Multi-race players do not like tough to beat chalks in the first leg of a Pick Four. By calculating the morning-line odds first, the racing secretary and director of mutuels will have an opportunity to maximize handle by carding the races strategically.
Between race television analysts should not release their selections until AFTER the post parade. Most television departments demand that the on-air talent produce picks for all the races prior to first post. That does the talent, and more importantly the betting public, a disservice. Things change. Track bias, toteboard action and how the horses look in the post parade are all major factors in helping legitimate analysts arrive at their final decision. A handful of tracks have taken to having paddock tweeters on hand to provide last minute insight, which is a nice touch, but why can’t the track analyst simply employ the same strategy?
You think those ideas are crazy, well you haven’t read nothing yet.
Remember when I said I wasn’t much for tradition? Well, my next idea may not sit well with the masses, but it will certainly make horseracing more watchable. Do AWAY with owners silks, and instead color coordinate by number. Jockey number one wears READ, two is WHITE, three is BLUE and so on. It would make the race SO much easier to watch, particularly for newcomers who 90 percent of the time have no idea where their horse is until the deep stretch. Instead of jockey silks, each owner would design their own patch that would be Velcroed to the jockey’s chest.
In order to progress into the future, sometimes you have to take a chance.
MONEY COMES TO MONEY LEADING TO (HOPEFULLY) MONEY 2010-08-06
By Caton Bredar
For the second straight year, interstates designed as country roads have taken me no, not home, but instead, to West Virginia for one of the biggest racing days in the state. At over $1.5 million on the 9-race card, for that matter, it's THE richest day of Thoroughbred racing in North America on the day, and one of the only tracks I know that can actually still pull off a single day of stakes only racing that's not restricted in some manner (i.e. it's not just West Virginia-breds).
The lure of money is no small matter in racing today--for trainers, jockeys, racetracks and especially bettors. The top four trainers in North America in earnings--Pletcher, Asmussen, Baffert and Hollendorfer have all sent horses to the humble track nestled in the northern most panhandle of the Ohio River Valley, in the corner of the state where you only drive five minutes in any direction and find yourself in another state (Pennsylvania or Ohio geographically, "I never knew anyplace like this existed" emotionally). Safe to say none of these trainers would be crossing the state line were it not for the $750k purse on the line in the Derby--a fact not wasted on the owners of Mountaineer Park, who not only see the financial benefits a big day of racing can mean to the facility and to the area, but they are one of the few operators still willing to fork over extra cash to insure added exposure through national television coverage via FOX Sports Net.
For true, hard-core horse racing gamblers, it's a slightly different scenario. While the attraction of a big money day with star-power connections and (perhaps most importantly) large fields is impossible to deny, the truth is, we would likely be gamblilng anyway. Case in point, yesterday after lunch at the hotel/casino, my broadcast partner Kurt Hoover (Jill Byrne will round out the team) and I wandered over to the racebook. I wanted to watch the 4th from Arlington Park in which jockey Florent Geroux was riding a horse for perennial leading trainer Wayne Catalano. (My husband is currently working as agent for Geroux, so I had a vested interest both in the jockey and the outcome of the race). To make a long story a little shorter, Geroux's horse ran a valiant race but wound up beaten a nose on the wire by a 9 to 1 shot trained by Mike Stidham. I boxed the exacta--a personal rule of mine...always box exactas and trifectas as it hurts too much to handicap ALMOST perfectly (if the pay-off is too low, then skip the particular bet and use the horses you like in a different exotic); it paid $90.
Kurt and I had another twenty minutes or so to kill before going back to the production trailer (a short trek across the racetrack), and with the next race from Louisiana Downs just a few minutes away, he suggested he play that one and we then return to the track. He quickly scanned the race--a beaten, bottom-level claimer--saw a vulnerable 7 to 5 shot (another rule of mine, no horse in a bottom level beaten claiming race should be 7 to 5...if he were that consistant, he wouldn't be in a beaten, bottom level claiming race), found a nice 9 to 2 shot, wheeled him in the exacta and, a few short minutes later, collected $250 on the exacta with a 25-1 shot winning a tight photo for second.
I'm not necessarily endorsing the concept of playing races based on whatever happens to be coming next, but sometimes, going with the flow of things and embracing the moment proves to be the way to go. More importantly, Mountaineer Park--whether its an average night or a special, $1.5 million West Virginia Derby Day program, offers large and competitive fields that are interesting to wager on any time. With horses shipping in from all over the East Coast and Midwest, it's a fun signal to jump in on. As for Saturday's big race, I'm most likely going with Concord Point for Bob Baffert. The colt beat Steve Asmussen's runner Theskyhasnolimit in an explosive performance in the Iowa Derby--Concord Point's firstr try on the traditional dirt. I'm guessing the son of Tapit has found a new home on the dirt, and reports from the backstretch are that the big grey is as happy as the rest of us are, to be in West Virginia.
My Input in Racing’s Information Age 2010-08-04
By Jeremy Plonk
XpressBet RaceChat Host
Those of you who have followed XpressBet RaceChat over the past several months have seen our hosts bounce around from track to track as the circuits change. Like all horseplayers, we move with the racing tides from meet to meet, each having our favorites.
But we strive to provide as much expertise as possible in a given circuit, and our hosts/analysts generally focus on one track for a given stand. My seasonal responsibilities this summer hone in on Del Mar, where the turf meets the surf and the picks meet the Polytrack. I’ve somehow carved out a niche in the handicapping world as a synthetics specialist, not by design, but by open-mindedness.
When it appeared that synthetic surfaces were going to be part of the expanded landscape of handicapping, I chose to study what was happening instead of bemoaning the loss of dirt racing. As editor of a popular and independent racing magazine at the time, I devoted an entire issue to handicapping synthetic surfaces and providing fans as many tools as possible to better their experience.
A few months later, the folks at Keeneland tracked me down from that article and asked if I would be interested in talking with their marketing department about ways of communicating handicapping information regarding their Polytrack surface. As someone who already had been a statistical consultant to Oaklawn Park and helped them get several of their key stakes races graded or upgraded, I was interested in building my racetrack portfolio as much as anything. At the time, and still today, I had gained some reputation for statistics and analysis through my work with NBC Sports and ESPN’s coverage of racing on television.
But before I could even talk to the people at Keeneland about what they could do to help fans, I needed to understand what was happening on the track. I requested they provide me not only charts of every race that had been run to that point on the Polytrack, but also the past performances of every race. I wanted to see who was winning, why they were winning, and what indicators might have been available before their winning performance.
So began an incredibly tedious task of inputting tens of thousands of fields of data, by hand, into an Excel spreadsheet. Boxes and boxes of past performances and charts were sifted ream by ream. When the finger cramps subsided, I had what felt like a massive database with which to play. And so I began filtering columns and trying to put reasons to results.
I started noticing interesting facts like the point that Keeneland’s turf races were FAR more unpredictable in results than their Polytrack payoffs, etc. These were items that a marketing department could use to deflect criticism that all of its chaotic results were strictly because of their decision to change surfaces. But after conferring with the staff, Keeneland’s Julie Balog and I decided that this spreadsheet of mine served a much greater potential purpose than to come up with public relations control.
It was a tool for the horseplayer.
Keeneland then took the initiative to commission Equibase to populate the database with exact data, helping to ensure a more accurate final model than what my fried brain might have keyed into my Excel sheets. The Equibase horsepower then would allow the database to be updated each day and repopulate the statistics for users to have the most current info. The “Polycapping” database, as it was named, was born.
As a stats geek, I was empowered to be able to use fingertip controls and find out things like how many $10,000 claimers a particular barn has won at the meet, or whether or not statistically there’s any proof that horses shortening back in distance won more races than those stretching out in distance. For meets like Keeneland, and subsequently the advent of Del Mar’s Polycapping database, I’ve become engulfed in using this information in an attempt to get an edge. I’ve also become a consultant to Del Mar in the process, not for my allegiance to the surface, but for my open-mindedness to study it. Many times they’ve asked me to do internal reports, and never once asked for an ounce of spin.
My hat goes off to tracks like Keeneland and Del Mar, as well as Arlington, who provide so much data in a free forum like the Polycapping databases. The truth of the matter is that these databases really have nothing to do with the surfaces. Both turf and Polytrack races are included, and it would make absolutely no difference if the surface column included dirt and turf at any other track.
Synthetic surfaces may not last forever, and truthfully it matters not to me, even though many have fingered me as a guy who has capitalized on their presence and perhaps even “sold out” to them.
My goal from the first day I was asked to take a look was to see what makes a winner a winner. If the synthetic tracks all were ripped up tomorrow, I’d hope that these tracks and other tracks would look at continuing a Polycapping-style database for their fans. If I have one lasting impact on this game, some day I hope I can look back and take some pride in how racetracks value their customers and the information they provide to them free of charge.
There’s No Feeling Quite Like It 2010-08-03
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
I’ve owned pieces of five horses over the years, and I miss it. The feeling of winning a race with your horse, and trotting friends and family down for the winner’s circle picture is indescribable. It’s something every racing fan should experience.
Like virtually every current or former horse owner, I’ve relished in the highs, but have also endured the lows.
Secret Command, my first horse, has the distinction of having run against future Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem in the ’02 Illinois Derby. In partnership with Dare To Dream Stables, I claimed him for $5K. Liane Davis won a race with him at Arlington, but later had to be sidelined with a stress fracture in his ankle. We brought him back and ran him a couple more times, but the ankle issue popped up again, and he was given away to begin a new career as a show horse.
A couple of years later I teamed with Team Diamond II, trainer Tony Granitz and Chicago radio legend Steve Dahl to purchase a pair of 2-year-olds in training out of the Timonium sale. Dahl had a contest on the radio to name both horses, which made the experience that much more fun. The winning names were Stevebiscuit and Aloha Friday.
“Biscuit” cost only $10K at auction, but he developed into a warrior. He didn’t show much at age two, but woke up with blinkers as a sophomore and won four races for us, banking $60K along the way. He got claimed away for $16K in the final start of that year. It was sad to see him go, BUT after years in the game, I do understand that horse ownership is a business. Just for the heck of it, I pulled up his lifetime pp’s and found out that Stevebiscuit is actually still running in lower level claimers at Charlestown!
We weren’t nearly as fortunate with Aloha Friday. He cost three times as much as Stevebiscuit, but didn’t have nearly the same competitive drive. In his fourth career start, he cut the corner at Hawthorne and looked like a winner, but instead he broke down and had to be humanely destroyed. That was not fun. The docile, friendly soul we pet and fed carrots to in the morning died doing his job. Again, it’s a part of the game, but one I hope never to experience again.
The partnership had some funds leftover from the Stevebiscuit success, so the following sprint we purchased an Illinois-bred filly out of Florida. Admittedly when writing this XpressBlog, I had a tough time coming up with her name. The most memorable thing about her was that she got so nervous in her stall, we eventually had to buy her a pet goat to help settle her down. Also named on the Dahl radio show, Afternoon Pickmeup couldn’t outrun her own shadow. She got crushed three times by the slowest horses on the grounds, and was eventually given away. She was never bred.
After a two-year hiatus, I got back in the game last year with the 2-year-old filly Our Tekela Rose. She debuted for Lon Wiggins the Sunday before Memorial Day, which was a perfect opportunity to invite friends and family to the track. We occupied three boxes.
A realist by nature, I was cautiously optimistic about our chances. We drew the rail, which isn’t the greatest place to be for an inexperienced baby. John Good had a horse entered who was firing bullet works, and the Tom Proctor filly had been getting some hype around the racetrack.
Our Tekela Rose opened up as the favorite, but that’s what happens when you and all of your partners each have dozens of supporters at the track. All those $20 win bets add up.
The filly hid in the stall behind a pony most of the time, but from what I could tell, she looked calm and ready to go.
We returned to the box seats, and two minutes before the race, I made an announcement to my mostly inexperienced guests.
“If by some chance we win, run as fast as you can down the stairs and out through the doors to the apron and meet me at the entrance to the winner’s circle. I’m not waiting for anybody.”
The anticipation built as the horses loaded into the gate. It’s difficult to explain the feeling when you’re about to watch your horse run.
The gate sprung open, and three jumps out of the gate, we already had a two-length lead. Our Tekela Rose was fast and eager, and she immediately cleared the hurdle of being on the rail. Entering the turn, I vaguely remember thinking out loud “he (jockey Chris Emigh) has a LOT of horse”.
The John Good-trained favorite ranged right up to our filly and looked her in the eye, but Our Tekela Rose was determined. She put her lone serious challenger away, and WON by a length.
What a rush!
Like a giant centipede, my entire group flew from the boxes down to the winner’s circle. I don’t think any innocent bystanders were injured along the way.
The winner’s circle was bedlam. Partners and newly found friends trading high fives and fist bumps.
We were offered $100,000 for her, but politely declined. This could be THE horse!
When you win a baby race in May, you only have a couple of options – sit around and wait for an allowance, or run back in a stake. It’s tough not to get ambitious. We gave her an acid test in the G3 Debutante at Churchill five weeks later, and after flashing competitive speed, she faded badly and finished last.
It was back to the drawing board. The plan was to work her back slowly and let her tell us when she was ready to run, but to our dismay, she wretched both back ankles in a morning workout, and had to be retired. Bummer!
It would be at least a year before we could even think about running her again, and from my experience, they rarely come back the same. We decided it was in the best interests of the partnership to give her away to trainer Austin Smith. Last week I got wind that Our Tekela Rose, was in foal to Purim and that the baby will be dropped in either Illinois or Indiana next spring.
In these difficult economic times, horse ownership isn’t in the front of most people’s minds, but if you’ve been thinking about getting involved, and you have a little discernable income, I recommend giving it a shot.
There were 20 partners involved in my most recent partnership, and many of them were new to the game. Some owned more than one share, others owned just a portion of a share. Jumping into such a partnership limits your risk, but gives you all the benefits of ownership.
Horse ownership isn’t as complicated as you might think. Talk to other horse owners, and/or a trainer who you are interested in using. You’d be surprised how approachable everyone horseracing people are.
If you do take the plunge, view at it as entertainment, not as an investment. Limit your financial risk, and have fun. The ability to visit your horse at the barn and invite family and friends out to the track to see them run is fantastic, and the experience of winning a race, is absolutely priceless!
No Sophomore Slumps Here 2010-07-30
By Caton Bredar
After all the excitement of the Triple Crown, everybody—horses, horsemen and handicappers—got a well deserved six weeks or so, to rest, re-group and get ready for the second half of the season. That second half unofficially begins this weekend, with over one and a half million dollars up for grabs in races restricted to sophomores. If you extend the “kick-off” through next Saturday’s $750,000 West Virginia Derby which I’m covering for Fox Sport Net (insert shameless self promotion plug apology here), the total rises to a gaudy $2.25 million and insures the likelihood of seeing over the next seven days, every active, viable candidate for year-end divisional honors.
The major races themselves break out neatly into three categories. Sunday’s $1 million Haskell, the richest of the races, has naturally lured the superstars of the division. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver seeks to avenge his loss in the Preakness. Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky attempts to cement his credentials as the leader of the pack. Monmouth’s veteran racing boss Bobby Kulina has labeled this year’s Haskell the most contentious ever (although I humbly suggest the 1987 edition with Bet Twice, Alysheba and Lost Code should remain the benchmark).
At the complete opposite end of the spectrum, next Saturday’s West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer Park will attract a field of relative unknowns. Sure, horses like Exhi or Coffee Boy have won stakes races and are very nice animals, but does anyone besides me or their owners and trainers really know which races they’ve won or who they’ve beaten? Next weekend’s contest will give these 3-year-olds an opportunity not only to win a boat-load of money, but also to graduate from relative obscurity to the major league. As an aside for handicappers, these types of races often lend themselves to upsets and great gambling opportunities.
Neatly in the middle sits the grade II Jim Dandy. Offering a more “modest” purse of “only” a half-million dollars, the mile and an eighth prelude to the Travers has, nevertheless, lured what I feel are the most interesting of the contestants. Of course, I may be a little biased. All but two of the runners in the nine-horse field raced over the winter at Gulfstream Park, and most of them won in South Florida.
It’s hard not to like best what you know best. Aikenite, still far down on Todd Pletcher’s depth chart, has been a consistent check earner for Dogwood Stable and was hands down, one of the best looking 3-year-olds I saw in South Florida this winter. Horses like A Little Warm, Miner’s Reserve, Winslow Homer, Friend or Foe and Fly Down were all ultra impressive in their respective victories—the kind of wins that make you sit up and take notice, put the names on your Stable Mail or include them in your fantasy derby stables. In the case of Nick Zito’s pair, they were the kind of wins that made a trainer go directly from the maiden and allowance ranks to graded stakes. In the case of Tony Dutrow’s pair—they were the kind of stakes wins that put the trainer smack in the middle of Kentucky Derby fever.
A Little Warm’s win in the Spectacular Bid on a rain-soaked, dreary, unseasonably cold opening weekend was the kind of race that gets everyone talking. His subsequent runner-up finishes in the Hutcheson and the Louisiana Derby—his first try around two turns—were enough to keep him on the short list of Derby contenders, right up until the time he was knocked to the sidelines and off the trail. The only consolation to trainer Dutrow, perhaps, the fact that his time on the trail was longer than Winslow Homer’s, the promising winner of the Holy Bull Stakes who was knocked to the sidelines early in the season.
Both Dutrow horses have returned to action in winning fashion, A Little Warm winning a tough allowance race at Delaware Park over Miner’s Reserve and Winslow Homer finally getting a Derby—albeit, the Iowa Derby. It’ll be exciting to watch both horses Saturday, in their toughest tests since those wins at the beginning of the year in South Florida—exciting to see if their trainer’s initial hope and confidence in the horses (along with some of the handicappers) is rewarded.
Similarly, I’m looking forward to watching Afleet Express—one of the few exciting sophomores who didn’t win at Gulfstream. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens had high hopes from the beginning for the son of Preakness winner Afleet Alex. A darker, bigger, stronger version of his sire, Afleet Express obviously carried the confidence of the gamblers, too, as he was bet down to favorite in his first two starts of the year. In both starts, Afleet Express disappointed the bettors, and an assortment of minor issues—skin rashes, coughs—tested Jerkens’ patience. After a break from late February until May, that patience was rewarded, though, with a win in a Belmont allowance and, in his most recent start, a win in the grade III Pegasus. Jerkens is not prone to hyperbole, but even he is excited about his colt prospects and looking forward to the Jim Dandy.
While it’s tempting to focus most on the horses everyone knows best, though, it would be a mistake to overlook the European invader. While North American 3-year-olds have, for the most part, taken turns beating one another, the performances overseas, particularly at prestige meets like Ascot, have been more form-full. The Irish shipper Steinbeck was beaten half a length by the highly regarded juvenile Beethoven, and while he was well beaten by top sophomore Canford Cliffs in both the Irish Guineas and Saint James’ Palace, he gains Lasix as well as Garret Gomez here in the United States and may not have any rival as formidable as the ones he’s already faced.
If reports are favorable that he ships and settles in well at Saratoga, Steinbeck will be the horse I’ll be focusing most on in the Jim Dandy, and wouldn’t that be an interesting way to kick off the second half of the 3-year-old season?
Commitment to the People 2010-07-28
By Jeremy Plonk, host of XpressBet RaceChat
When you work in the horse racing industry, days off are hard to come by. After all, we work when others play, which often means weekends. For me, and many of my brethren in the industry, a Monday or Tuesday can sometimes be like gold. I try to get away on Tuesdays and spend time with the family.
Unfortutately, just like happens to many of you, those one-day family "weekends" often turn into a quest to complete the dreaded "honey-do" list. Such was my case this Tuesday, when I further learned a point that I'll take back with me to our work week on XpressBet RaceChat.
People matter most.
To complete a project, I needed to find 1-1/2 inch staples from Lowes. Seemed simple enough. But after several hours and 70 miles in the car, you learn just how difficult people can be. Turns out, 1-1/4 inch staples are the best you're going to do at the home warehouse stores. And after several tussles with management and the manufacturer, the end result was that the 1-1/4 inch staples were fine for the assembly I needed anway. Boy, that was worth the frustration.
Give them a quarter-inch and they'll take a mile, or so they say ... something like that.
You don't need the play-by-play. Insert bad customer service here and you've experienced something all too familar. People don't care. Management doesn't care. You, the consumer, gets screwed and have nowhere to turn.
What I've loved about dealing with horse racing's fans/customers one-on-one over the course of 2010 in RaceChat is that we get to fix that disconnect from which so many businesses suffer. We get to listen and interact in real time. You need help with that honey-do project, good luck getting anyone with an ear that cares. You need help deciding between the 6 and 9 in today's feature race at Del Mar, not only do you have a place to go, you have people on the other end of the line who truly care.
Because the RaceChat hosts like myself, Joe Kristufek, Bob Neumeier et al are discussing the races publicly, there's no room to hide. It creates an honest exchange of ideas and let's you see what we're thinking, when we're thinking it, and how me might approach nearly every raceday situation. If we're not right nearly enough, it shows. And that forced accountability benefits you, the consumer of RaceChat, because you know you're getting a prideful response from the experts on hand.
I take special pride in trying to help teach the art of handicapping to attendees in RaceChat. It helps when you love the product you're trying to sell. But sometimes it's simply a matter of caring enough about the people who want your help.
Try getting that at your local home superstore ... or at the mall ... or at the post office ... or just about anywhere these days.
Raining on my Parade 2010-07-27
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
Horseracing isn’t perfect. It’s far from it in fact.
There are too many people who don’t know much about the game making decisions about how the product should be presented and promoted.
Budgets are tight. I understand that, but there are several simple things that racetracks can do to increase handle that don’t cost a dime.
At the top of the list is the post parade.
How difficult is it to get the horses to come out of the tunnel and turn right, turn right, parade until their name is announced, and then break off?
Most tracks do an excellent job with their post parade, but Belmont and Saratoga are glaring exceptions.
High profile tracks with sensational quality, and we can’t get a watchable post parade?
Every race, every day, the horses at Belmont and Saratoga come out of the tunnel and turn left. We get a great look at the pony, but a horrible look at the actual horse who is racing.
Personally, the post parades are a key component in my handicapping strategy. It the final piece to the puzzle. When I don’t get a good look at the horses in the post parade, my handle drops……significantly.
I’ve gotten several fantastic testimonials from RaceChatters about post parade analysis. I thought I’d share one from Mike Loving from Fredericksburg, Virginia.
“Joe Kristufek's is one of the best at making post parade observations; his insights are invaluable especially when playing from home when you don't get great shots of these horses in the post parade. During the Preakness Joe in the Live Chat said that Looking at Lucky, First Dude and Jackson Bend looked the best on the track. With his trusted insight I decided to included Jackson Bend on my two Trifecta wheel tickets resulting in my over $3000.00 dollar Preakness Day.”
I’m sure I’m not the only one in wagering land who feels that post parade analysis is important. Think of the handle NYRA loses by not offering quality post parades. What would it take to present the post parades in a orderly and orderly fashion? Not much. Perhaps they just don’t care.
Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart 2010-07-23
By Caton Bredar
It’s something I first learned as a teenager, after losing much of my hard-earned summer wages betting without much success on all the horses either trained by my Dad, or galloped by me.
Sure, a few long shots helped to take some of the sting away—temporarily. A stint working for Tom Skiffington toward the end of my “professional” exercise rider career helped the lifetime bottom line. It seemed like everything we led over that season at Hialeah—Spook Express and so many good ones—hit the winner’s circle.
At the end of the day, though, the biggest financial gains are generally made by following tried and true handicapping methods and what your head is telling you as you assimilate the past performances and data, NOT what you emotionally feel when you look at a horse, a trainer, a jockey or a race. When you fall in love with horses and bet on them, they generally break your heart AND your pocketbook.
Which brings me to Rachel Alexandra.
In some rare instances, it’s impossible not to let emotions enter into the picture, and some times, they steer you right.
When Rachel made her return in New Orleans in the Ladies, on paper and logically, she looked like a lock. There were rumors about physical issues or inconsistencies in her training, but I’ve learned to never listen to those unless I see it first hand myself. Emotionally for me, though—a dyed in the wool Zenyatta fan—I never bought into her invincibility. Although Rachel was a very good three-year-old—arguably the best of her generation—I believed in my heart Zenyatta was better. Rachel, to my way of thinking, had beaten up on a sub-par group of 3-year-olds and had ultimately beaten a mediocre group of older horses one time. She was very good. Zenyatta, in my humble opinion, was one of the best race horses of any gender I’ve seen in my lifetime.
When Rachel Alexandra was named Horse of the Year over Zenyatta, I’ll admit it. I was heart-broken. And I let those emotions influence me—not anything on paper—when I thought Rachel would lose in the Ladies.
Round two and the La Troienne at Churchill Downs; another seemingly easy spot for the champ, with no horse on paper coming close to earning the speed figures or accomplishments as Rachel. Now she had a race under her belt and was back to her home track. Perhaps a little less emotional, I still felt off the last race, she was vulnerable. Even more importantly, though, over the winter at Gulfstream Park, I had developed a more personal attachment to a filly named Unrivaled Belle.
Over the winter, while working as Executive Producer and Media Director for Gulfstream Park, I spent some time at the Mott barn watching a highly-strung filly develop into a graded stakes winner. I saw the time assistant trainer Ken McCarthy spent in the mornings with Unrivaled Belle, always taking her to and from the track with a pony, always trying—somewhat unsuccessfully at that time—to get her to settle down. This was a filly, morning or afternoons, constantly in over-drive.
When the feisty athlete nearly pulled Hall of Famer Bill Mott’s arm off, dragging him from the walking ring to the racetrack for the Rampart, I had my doubts about her. When she nearly unseated seasoned veteran Kent Desormeaux prior to the start, breaking away from the pony and assistant starter and nearly colliding with the ambulance, I had just about written her off. When despite the Florida Derby crowd, her pre-race antics and a less than stellar start, the filly demolished a graded-stakes caliber field, I was a believer. If Unrivaled Belle could only settle down a little, just think what she could accomplish.
It was with those memories, and my emotions toward Rachel, that I watched Unrivaled Belle in the paddock prior to the La Troienne, stand cool as a cucumber. As I interviewed her owner before hand for HRTV, I was struck by how much more nervous he was than his horse. For wagering purposes, not only did I become more convinced that Rachel might lose, but more importantly, I had a strong opinion on who would win. There was very little quantitative data or past performance info to back up my instincts. It was an emotional reaction more than anything, but hey—it worked.
As Rachel enters arguably one of the easiest stakes races of her career tomorrow at Monmouth Park in the Lady’s Secret, there’s no longer an emotional quandary for me. While I’d love to see a stiffer test, I look forward to watching the reigning Horse of the Year and the large, enthusiastic crowd she will bring. She comes off a good effort and will be a deserving favorite over a track she has run brilliantly over the past, in what for all intents and purposes appears a mismatch.
Not only do I hope she rewards all of us that either back her at the windows or just cheer her on, with another devastatingly impressive victory. I hope with all my heart she continues on, healthy and happy, to a start in the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs.
This time, the heart AND the head both say yes.
DAWN OF A NEW MEET 2010-07-21
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat host
Del Mar gets under way in T-minus a few hours, and it’s fair for horseplayers to be a little queasy before the launch sequence. Any new racing meet on the calendar brings a reasonable amount of trepidation. After all, we horseplayers are creatures of wagering habit, and things new equate to things uncertain.
Putting one toe in the wagering pools to see how they feel is an early meet approach used by many. We’ll have half a summer to do serious damage at places like Del Mar and Saratoga over the next several weeks, so there’s no urgency to make opening day, weekend or week a wagering spectacular. But does this mean you pass up good opportunities in the name of cautiousness?
Absolutely not. A solid play on Day 1 is as solid as one on Day 31.
Here are the kinds of plays I will bet with confidence opening week at Del Mar and Saratoga, hoping to capitalize on others’ uncertainty:
1) Horses who have a decided pace advantage/favorable set-up. Pace knows know time and place in racing; it’s one of the time-honored axioms to embrace. If there are 4 or 5 front-runners in a race and you have a solid line on one of the closers, jump in. The same goes for a lone speed runner who is of class and quality to beat this field today.
2) Horses working extremely well. Top efforts are like bananas. They’re sweet when ripe, but get soft awfully quick. For many horses, there is a short shelf life to a favorable performance. If you pass up a strong worker today in hopes of catching him next time after you’ve seen a race, there’s a decent chance he may not be as sharp when he re-appears.
3) Intra-race trifectas and superfectas. When I have a horse I adore, I’m keying them on top in tris and supers, expecting some chaos underneath. With a new meet, no doubt there will be horses who run poorly over the new surfaces, and others who excel, with little notice. So when I am right with the key horse, I expect to catch a big number underneath somewhere. I’ll tread VERY lightly on doubles, pick 3s and pick 4s for a while until the meet settles in. Your chances of being right in multiple puzzles in succession surely is lessened with the uncertainty of a new meet. So get paid when you are right, and play your horses down the line in tris/supers within one race. You only need to cash once on the day to make a profit most likely.
A Strange Twist of Fate 2010-07-20
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
I grew up just a few short miles from Hawthorne and the old Sportsman’s Park, but I never went to the track as a child. My parents don’t have any “gamble” in them (but my uncles and cousins sure do!).
My first memory of racing was watching the 1983 Kentucky Derby on TV. I remember liking Slew o’Gold for some reason. He ran fourth at 10-1.
Just for kicks, my high school friends and I used to pick horses out the newspaper, and check the results the next day, but back then, I thought fur-long meant that a horse needed a haircut.
Then everything changed.
It was a fateful day in downtown Chicago in the summer of 1987. I was a Columbia College student working part time at the Sears Tower, looking for a little excitement between work and school.
As luck would have it, Illinois’ first ever off track betting facility opened on the corner of Jackson and Franklin, and it just so happened that I had to walk past there everyday to go to class.
The neon sign got my attention, and I wandered in.
I felt like Luke Skywalker walking into that freak show cantina in the original Star Wars. Dark, dingy, cigar smoke everywhere, and a cast of characters like I had never seen anywhere.
I felt out of place, but the beer was cold, and you could bet legally!
I frequented that place way too often, and lost entirely too much money. Horse racing contributed to my extended five-year college life.
As time passed, I started to understand that there was a method to understanding this chaos. Every race is like a puzzle, and if you’re right, they pay you for it!
One day I looked up at one of the television screens on the first floor of the OTB. There was some guy named Tony Cobitz, dressed in a suit and tie, in the middle of the Arlington paddock on a gorgeous summer day. Did they actually PAY him to talk about horse racing?????
At the time I was a journalism student with a half-ass goal of becoming a sports reporter.
Then it hit me. I wanted to be Tony Cobitz. I wanted somebody to pay ME to go to the track every day.
From that moment forward, every assignment was geared towards horse racing – news, features, investigations – it didn’t matter. If I had to write for school, why shouldn’t I learn about the pari-mutuel wagering system, Lasix and the Triple Crown along the way?
After pestering Chicago Tribune handicapper Dave Surico for several months, he finally gave me a lead for a summer job – as a wagering host at Arlington Park. There I was introduced to Dave Zenner, and despite his pleas for me to reconsider quitting a full time job with Sears in Hoffman Estates (man, I hated that job), I convinced him to hire me for the fall of ’92 meet at Hawthorne.
There I faxed stuff, marked programs and bet my entire check three times over.
I’ve now worked in horse racing for 18 years. It hasn’t been a walkover. Full time positions are few and far between. I’ve done 100 different jobs, and my path to the present has taken pits stops at Rockingham Park in Salem, New Hampshire, Philly at The Racing Network and full circle back to Chicago. I’ve worked Kentucky Derbies, Breeders’ Cups, and Super Nights at Balmoral.
I turned my hobby into a job. I am an ambassador for horse racing. I love the game, and I think you should to.
If you love horse racing half as much as I do, take it upon yourself to expose your friends, family, and acquaintances to a day at the races. Show them around. Explain not only the information in the program, but how racing works. It’s a fascinating sport that can be enjoyed on MANY levels. If a first timer has a positive first experience at the track, even if they don’t WIN at the windows, chances are they will come back.
Some of those second timers will become fans for life. We need a LOT more of those.
PREPARING FOR DEL MAR 2010-07-14
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat host
Del Mar is different. And that’s in the objective way, not the weird way that someone uses when they see your neon orange sneakers.
Different can be good, but it can also be difficult in the world of handicapping. Several factors make Del Mar different.
1.) The surface.
Even before Polytrack was installed for the past three meetings, Del Mar’s main dirt track always played far differently than those at Hollywood and Santa Anita. Horses used to speeding clear and bidding the field farewell in the LA area found San Diego a more challenging test in terms of pace. The seaside tides and the like conspired for a different surface than its California brethren, and having a local workout or past experience at Del Mar used to mean a lot.
It still does, now because of the Polytrack, which is a decidedly different manufactured surface than the Cushion Track at Hollywood and the Pro Ride at Santa Anita. Horses for courses matter at Del Mar, and you want to find horses who have done well here in the past, or are tipping their hands in the morning.
2.) The need to be seen.
Owners of California racehorses want their picture taken at Del Mar. It’s as much social standing as it is purse money for these few weeks. Therefore, you see some rather wild drops in class at Del Mar that you would not see at Hollywood or Santa Anita. Just because an allowance horse dips in for $40,000 claiming at Del Mar, or a $25,000 claimer suddenly shows up for $15,000, it’s not a red flag that the horse is doing poorly. Often, it’s a sign that the owner wants to say “cheese” trackside after the race.
Add a weakened economy to the mix, and there are a lot of challenges in evaluating horses dropping in class that make it different than years gone by when you could assume a horse was not doing well physically if dropped in claiming price.
3.) The sandwich.
Fish tacos are the traditional grandstand fare at Del Mar, so this is a different sandwich. The Del Mar meet is sandwiched between Hollywood Park and Fairplex’s race meetings, which makes it even more amplified in importance. Many big barns rest up at Hollywood and await the big Del Mar dates, while no serious horses of consequence are going to be eased up on to save something for Fairplex afterwards.
Basically in California, the big players have little to aim for between the April end of Santa Anita and the October unveiling at Oak Tree, other than Del Mar. And, oh, do they ever aim for this season!
The sandwich creates two handicapping challenges: evaluating layoffs and evaluating horses running back on short rest once the meet hits its stride.
Over the next week as we await next Wednesday’s Del Mar opener, these keys will be part of my pre-meet study. With the help of Del Mar’s highly helpful Polycapping database (available for free use and download at www.dmtc.com), I’ll be on the lookout for owners who have won claiming races; connections who have done well with or without local workouts; connections who have done well on quick turnarounds, or off layoffs from the Santa Anita meeting, and more.
Del Mar is different. But I wouldn’t want it any other way. Bring on the surf and the turf! See you next Wednesday for opening day, when I’ll be hosting XpressBet RaceChat for Del Mar.
Know When to Take a Dip 2010-07-12
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
In most cases, minnows should not swim with sharks.
When it comes to the Pick Six, the heavy hitters have a huge advantage over the small-time horsesplayers.
Handicapping skill can only take you so far in a Pick Six sequence. No matter how “in tune” you are with those races, a random result often puts a wrench into the plan. The more expensive tickets with greater coverage often swallow up thousands of throw away investments.
That’s often the case, but not always. Sequence evaluation is critical.
This past Sunday at Hollywood offered a Pick Six carryover just shy of $600,000. The sharks smelled blood, but so did the minnows.
Often times in a sequence of six races, there are no confident singles, and several of the races have multiple contenders.
In most cases, I would consider a $600 investment Pick Six suicide, but this sequence dictated otherwise.
There were several potential “singles”, and only one puzzling race (the 7th).
In any multi-race wager, the ticket construction is even more important than the handicapping. Knowing where to single, where to double, where to spread, and who to toss out….
Fellow RaceChat hosts James Dickson, Brian Spencer and I had a $600 voucher lying around from a previous partnership venture.
James was the ringleader here, and here’s what we came up with.
4) 16
5) 349
6) 48
7) 167
8) 12
9) 25810
Total bet is $576
Knocked out in the first leg - OUCH!
The six winners paid off as follows (* post time favorite):
4) 7-1
5) 8-5*
6) 2-5*
7) DH – 6-1 & 8-1
8) 5-2
9) 9--5
Even with the dead-heat in race seven, the Pick Six returned $5,543. While the sharks were left kissing their sister, many of the minnows enjoyed a healthy morsel, including a couple of our RaceChatters. Congratulations to Cindy and Joe!
As for our partnership, we hit 5 of 6 twice at $72.20 = $144.40. Instead of our sister, we were left kissing the family pet.
It was a wise investment that didn’t pay off. Opportunities for minnows don’t come along often, so be careful what waters you swim in.
KNOW IT WHEN YOU SEE IT 2010-07-07
By Jeremy Plonk XpressBet RaceChat Host
I’ve always subscribed to the theory that there are two kinds of handicappers, scientific and artistic. The scientific player relies on hard numbers and figures, formulae, computer programs and the like. The artistic player visualizes races, reads between the lines, makes educated assumptions and puts them into motion with wagers.
The scientific handicapper always has been more outwardly noticeable in the media to horse racing fans for one simple reason: It’s much easier to explain your calculations than it is to communicate things like, “I know it when I see it.” Hundreds of handicapping books and millions of articles have been written about how Handicapper X crunches and munches the numbers to unearth winners. Far less has been penned about the nuances of artistic handicapping.
One of the best forums for getting inside the head of an artistic handicapper has been RaceChat. Not only do you get to play along as an expert handicapper makes final decisions, often you are there to “Know it when you see it.” A great example of that has taken place during the current Monmouth Park meeting, which has been offered each Friday, Saturday and Sunday live during RaceChat.
New Jersey-bred maiden winner Partyallnightlong burst onto the scene May 22 with a dominant performance, one that truly caught the eye. Visually he did everything you want to see while winning in hand. I love to see a horse corner strongly and not lose any ground or momentum coming out of the far turn, then put his or head down and extend his stride while reaching out for more all the way through the wire. It was a visual masterpiece to an artistic handicapper, and one that made you think: “This horse has the ‘it’ factor.”
For an artistic handicapper, when you see an effort like this, it’s time to start thinking creatively. Wide brush strokes are possible, as you begin to consider the possibilities. One, you obviously want to mark down Partyallnightlong in your Equibase Virtual Stable or DRF Stable Mail services, to be notified when that horse returns to the races. But even moreso, you want to surround yourself with possibilities out of such a potential “key” race (one that produces multiple next-out strong performances). Identifying a potential “key” race before the rest of the public is a keystone in my handicapping, and certainly way more art than science.
Partyallnightlong received an 81 Beyer Speed Figure in his maiden win when scoring by 5-1/2 lengths. It was a big number, but not an eye-popper, but certainly one that would lead everyone on Earth to follow him next time out. Scoring on him at 1-to-2 odds, as it turned out, would be no great financial windfall.
But the dominoes around Partyallnightlong have fallen into place at this Monmouth stand. Not only did he return to win off of his maiden win, but so, too, did runner-up Hung Jury and fifth-place finisher Cause I Can. Fourth-place runner Arctic Air owns a pair of second-place finishes since then, including one behind fellow race alumnus Hung Jury. Speaking of Hung Jury, he’s now won twice since chasing the tail of Partyallnightlong. Following down the line, the horse who ran third to Partyallnightlong in his second win at the meeting in allowance company, 22-1 longshot Goobada Guska, came back to destroy an allowance field on the Fourth of July here.
Partyallnightlong has been so impressive that his connections opted to try him in the Grade 3 Jersey Shore Stakes over the weekend. To go from a NJ-bred maiden special weight race to a graded stakes race in the span of mere weeks tells you how impressive the sprinter has been to his connections as well. The Eddie Broome trainee ran a seriously credible fourth in the Jersey Shore, beaten only 3 lengths by elite sophomore Discreetly Mine while offering 15-1 odds.
Not every race produces the “wow” factor, that’s for sure. But watch enough races with a critical eye, and you’ll start to know it when you see it, too. Join us on RaceChat each day and perhaps our crew can help you develop an artistic eye that can help put your handicapping ahead of the curve.
Horse Play Isn’t Black and White 2010-07-05
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
Evaluating horses on paper is only half the battle. It is important to keep your eyes and ears open before making any final decisions.
Here’s how I approach wagering on each individual race.
Always watch the board closely for clues: Write down opening odds and follow the fluctuation. In my educated estimation, early money is often smart money. Say a horse that is programmed at 5-1 opens up on the board at odds of 8-5. Eventually over time they float up to 9-2, and then quickly drop back to 7-2. This horse could be a live wire.
Last minute odds drops don’t scare me nearly as much. If a horse is “dead on the board”, meaning they’re not getting the kind of attention they deserve based on their paper form, I don’t care if they get bet late. Basically that tells me that there are people in wagering land saying to themselves “this horse shouldn’t be this big a price”. They’re the ones knocking down the odds.
Never make a bet until AFTER the post parade. Horses can only tell you so much on paper. Their actions speak volumes. Is the horse calm, cool and collected or are they acting like they woke up on the wrong side of the hay? Do they sport controlled enthusiasm, or do they appear ready to take a nap?
I love a shiny, even dappled (spotted) coat and a horse that is on his or her toes. Toss in good muscle tone, alert ears, a nose into the pony and a bowed neck, and I’m headed to the windows. If a horse has a dull coat, looks too fat or too skinny or has a frothy sweat dripping down its neck or hind legs, I’ll take a pass. Especially in cheap races, and with horses returning from vacation, physicality can determine whether or not they are usable in your gimmicks.
Don’t rush to the window. Eliminate non contenders and construct your tickets based on the horses you like. Weight your tickets based on your opinions. Try to determine which bets will maximize your profit potential. Map out a concrete plan of attack, and then go to the window. More often than not, it’s the player that rushes to get their bet in that is going to toss out the wrong horse, or forget to add the right one.
In the XpressBet RaceChats, we handicap the horses on paper, but even more importantly, we walk through all of these gray angles and take a step by step strategy to every race.
Over the long haul, a methodical approach to horse play is often a winning one.
GA-GA OVER PENN NATIONAL? 2010-06-30
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat Host
I did something whacky last night. Well, maybe not Lady Ga-Ga whacky, but out of bounds for some horseplayers.
I handicapped and bet Penn National racing online.
Feedback when you write online comes in many ways, including via direct e-mail and message posters. Most who have blasted me over the past decade online make assumptions that when you’re in the national media, you thumb your nose at anything that’s not NYRA or Kentucky or California. But that’s never been my case. Some of my favorite tracks to visit include some that will never host a Breeders’ Cup or a million-dollar race.
Well, at least scratch Charles Town off that “never host a million-dollar race” qualifier. My, how times have changed.
Look, I get it. Slots-rich tracks are propped up by gamblers and subsidies that want nothing to do with horse racing. For a racetrack lover who wants to build a fan base, slots-rich tracks have proven a complete non-influence. But this blog is not about the big picture of slots. It’s about a much smaller focus.
Argue all you want about how good or bad slots are for racing in general, but what I saw and bet last night at Penn National was far superior in racing quality to anything I had ever seen at the Grantville oval. And, I grew up playing Penn National as a PA-bred myself. All this on a Tuesday night, no less.
A Race 2 allowance featured locals vs. invaders from Belmont, Monmouth and Delaware Park. The Race 4 allowance sprint on the turf featured the comeback (and win) of former Ellis Park Juvenile winner and G3 Kent Stakes fourth-place finisher Colonel Rutledge. Race 5’s allowance featured a trainer’s clash like I had never seen at Penn Nat – Scott Lake, Steve Klesaris, Tim Ritchey, Doug O’Neill and Maryland ace Chris Grove all were represented.
Slots may not make one-time bush tracks thrive at racing epicenters, but I can personally attest that they have made the racing far more attractive from a horseplayer’s standpoint. In an era overloaded by complaints, it was nice to find something old, something new, that could put a smile on my face.
The Right Approach 2010-06-28
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
The debut of our “Night School” chats was met with RAVE reviews.
I sound like a broken record, but educating the potential race fan is critical to the success of the industry, and the “Night School” forums are a fantastic tool in this area.
In case you missed it, here is the archive: http://www.arlingtonpark.com/racing/handicapping/chat-with-our-experts
The topic of the first “Night School” chat was how to approach at day at the races.
For many of us, racing/wagering is a hobby, but if you play regularly, it is important to take a calculated approach.
- Concentrate on one or two race meets at a time. Learn everything you can about jockeys, trainers, and nuances of the main track and turf.
- WATCH replays, take notes, and utilize a stable mail service. Keep track of trends/biases.
- Study the past performances the night before. Handicap each of the races and zero in on some of the horses you “like”. Having a head start is a big time help when it comes to having a successful day. If the races are already handicapped, you’ll be able to concentrate on equally important tasks such as watching the toteboard, checking out the horses in the paddock and post parade and constructing your tickets.
- Create your own morning line: Handicap the races the first time without looking at the program odds. You shouldn’t have any preconceived notions. Eventually learn how to calculate your own morning line and use it as a guideline. If your odds tell you a horse should be 3-1 and the horse is sitting there on the board at 8-1, in your estimation that’s the value. We’ll explore morning line calculation in a Get in the Game column down the road.
- Get settled in early. Get comfortable. Check out the weather conditions. Be aware of potential carryover pools. Based on their entries that day, and there recent success rate, have an idea of which trainers may be in line for a big day. Barns usually win, and lose, races in bunches. Mark your past performances with all of the early scratches and jockey changes and see how they affect your handicapping from the night before, especially in regards to race shape/pace.
Now your set, the day of racing is about to begin. The bulk of your handicapping is done. Now it’s time to just be observant. Next week we’ll discuss how to read between the lines.
BC ISSUES ON THE SUMMER HORIZON 2010-06-25
By Bob Neumeier, XpressBet RaceChat Host & NBC Sports Analyst
On a hot, sultry day in the Northeast with visions of Saratoga dancing in my head, I came upon several stories involving the 2010 Breeders’ Cup that caught my eye. The first was not a story, but, in fact, a television commercial advertising tickets to the November BC event. The spot featured Zenyatta as the key selling point, even though sophisticated fans know that she could step on a pin or pull a muscle at any time. That’s the fragile nature of sports, particularly horse racing, but Breeders’ Cup promoters are obviously positive and optimistic thinkers. So why not try to sell and hype this amazing champion, even though it’s about five and a half months before the event? Realistically, however, it’s caveat emptor ... let the ticket buyers beware.
Fans should roll the dice and think about buying tickets because the potential of Zenyatta vs. Rachel Alexandra vs. Quality Road would be a marvelous showdown in the Classic. It would be the dream of race promoters, bettors, television executives, and Breeders’ Cup honchos for, Lord knows, they have been a group under intense siege, and for good reason.
Recently this week, the Breeders’ Cup announced the results of voting that filled the empty chairs of the 39 Board of Members and Trustees. One of the newest additions to the group is food maven and television personality Bobby Flay, an unabashed racing supporter and owner of several Thoroughbreds. More importantly, it will be his job and his 38 other cohorts to name the seven members that will fill out the 13-seat Board of Directors.
But therein lays the rub.
The fact that there are seven of the 13 seats available on the Board of Directors speaks volumes on the organization itself. Rife with disharmony, the Breeders’ Cup marches on. Perhaps a Zenyatta vs. Rachel Alexandra vs. Quality Road showdown at Churchill Downs in November will be just the tonic to excite and unify the organization. For the past several years, the impressions have been that the organization makes willy-nilly decisions. So many questions have been raised: Why the sudden switch from back-to-back events of the synthetic world of Santa Anita to the traditional dirt tracks of Churchill Downs? Will the event find a singular home or will it go back to a rotation? Will the event be expanded or truncated?
In mid-July, seven new members of the Board will be announced. Whether they, or existing leadership, can unify the Breeders’ Cup will be a key to its future impact on racing. It is problematical that their problems will be solved by a Classic showdown between Z and Rachel with Quality Road on the marquee as well.
Oh, by the way, tickets are now available.
FATHERS DAY EVERY DAY IN RACING 2010-06-23
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat Host
This past Sunday, we celebrated Father’s Day here in America. At some tracks like Monmouth, it’s an event on to itself with more than 24,000 fans packing the track. To some, it’s a couple of chairs around the computer and the XpressBet account. Either way, for many families, horse racing is a multi-generational game.
Most people assume that since I’m involved in the industry that my family was rooted in the racing game, but that’s not the case. My Dad, Bill, has been a regular working guy and a horse racing fan all of his adult life, but that’s about as close as we came to being racing insiders. He taught me how to read the Daily Racing Form past performances before I could read school books, and while that used to drive my Mom batty, she’s proud now how it all turned out. You can, in fact, make a living with such a skill set!
My Dad is a great example of how racing’s customer base has changed. We never lived closer than about 60-90 minutes drive from a racetrack growing up, yet where we lived in the Mid-Atlantic, you could reach several tracks in that time span. Even with that distance, he drove to the track at least once every week that I can ever remember, often two times weekly, sometimes three (depends on how well you did on Day 1, then Day 2, of course.)
When I turned 16, suddenly I became glued to the highway en route to the track as well. Driving a clunker befitting a 16-year-old (shhhh, don’t ask how I wagered), a few times I was left alongside the road and searching for a payphone to get a pick-up. Dad never left me down. Boy, kids with cellphones have it easy today.
Consider my Dad today. A customer who had to average at least 75 on-track visits a year, driving more than an hour each way no less, now gets to the racetrack maybe 6-10 times a year. It’s now an event for him to be on-track, something special. A different day out. But he’s as big of a fan as ever, now only a few months from potential retirement. Even my Dad still has found the “alternative” ways to enjoy horse racing weekly (sometimes more than that), through off-track wagering and occasionally a phone account. Maybe someday we can even get him onto that crazy world wide web thingy.
My Dad and I always have had a strong bond, but horse racing long has been the glue. We spent nearly every Friday night together, so much so that I dropped playing football after the freshman level because I didn’t want to give up my Friday night trips to the track with my Dad. No matter how old I get, I’ll never forget all those late nights as a young kid laying across the front seat and sleeping on the drive home. Seat belt laws weren’t the requirement in those days, but driving to the track to enjoy the scene surely was.
We live in a different time now. But some things never change. My Dad and I talk horse racing every single time we pick up the phone or visit in person. And we never miss a week of racing action. It’s just viewed a bit differently, no matter which generation you’re talking about.
Time to go to “School” 2010-06-21
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
Of all the things I do in horseracing, I find educating the most fun, and rewarding.
Anyone who knows me knows how hard I push education. The biggest problem with this game is that not enough people understand it. They fail to realize that there is a method to picking winners, and constructing tickets that give them best chance to win.
Newcomers who bet and lose aren’t likely to return, and we wonder why our fan-base is on the decline?
Tonight at 8 p.m. EDT, fellow XpressBet RaceChat host Jeremy Plonk and I unveil our “Night School” series of educational chats with the goal helping fans become more successful horseplayers.
Tonight’s “Night School” chat focuses “Approaching a Day at the Races”.
For many of us, playing the races is a form of entertainment.
We go to the track with friends and/or family, pick up a program, pick out a horse or two, and make our wagers.
Others look at a day of racing through entirely different eyes. They play to compete, to piece together mental puzzles and seek out opportunities to make a financial score.
Regardless of how serious you take your horse play, the name of the game is having fun. On any given day, the guy or gal that handicaps the races for 30 seconds can outperform the serious handicapper, but in the long run, having a good approach breeds consistency.
If you have an interest in truly attacking a day at the races, join Joe and Jeremy Monday at 8 p.m. EDT for Night School!
Night School Chat Schedule (all times EDT)
Monday, June 21 - Approaching a Day at the Races - 8 p.m. until 9 p.m.
Monday, July 12 - Wagering Strategies - 8 p.m. until 9 p.m.
Monday, July 19 - Jockey/Trainer Handicapping - 8 p.m. until 9 p.m.
Monday, Aug. 2 - Reading Between the Lines - 8 p.m. until 9 p.m.
Monday, Aug. 16 - Handicapping Turf Races - 8 p.m. until 9 p.m.
IT FIGURES … OR DOES IT? 2010-06-16
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat Host
You won’t get much argument from me as to the impact speed figures have had on modern handicapping. No matter which service utilized, it’s safe to say that the majority of horseplayers use some concoction of numbers in one form or another. Their appeal stands out as obvious to many. Just don’t count me among the enumerated.
Two of my best friends in the racing industry and guys I respect most are part of Andy Beyer’s battalion of figure-makers, Randy Moss of ESPN and Dick Jerardi of the Philadelphia Daily News. Two better guys you’ll never meet, much less two harder workers. Meanwhile, Andy and I have had a very cordial relationship for more than a dozen years now. We exchange emails and ideas from time to time and always make a point to converse when we bump into each other at major racing meets.
So I have no problem with the folks who figure out the figures. It’s the premise and methodology.
Steven Crist spent a portion of his blog earlier this week at DRF.com explaining how you can’t take the Beyer Speed Figures for Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra and compare them. The two horses’ differing styles, Rachel a front-running demon and Zenyatta a late-charging freight train, make it impossible to compare the final figures. That’s because early pace equates prominently into the speed-figure process, and a horse who is slow early and fast late can never mathematically catch a horse on the charts who is fast early and fast-enough late. There also are factors such as weight carried that aren’t included in the published Beyer figures, though I can tell you from personal observation that Randy Moss makes his own “adjusted” Beyer figures that include weight as a factor when he researches and handicaps a race.
So if you can’t trust the raw numbers at face value, as mentioned by Crist, what mission do they serve? If they only provide another variable to the handicapping equation, each to be taken with your own grains of salt, it seems to me that they’ve been given far too much trustworthiness in the industry. As a person who has worked on the notes team at several racetracks/events, I can tell you personally of conversations with countless trainers who refused to commit to running in particular races until I brought them back the speed figures for their horses and competition so they could compare where they stack up. For many horsemen and horseplayers, the figs have been the gospel, not just part of the decision-making process. Throw in the “sheets” -- Ragozin or Thoro Graph -- to this discussion and you get the same “need” impact for horsemen and handicappers, only with a different numerical methodology.
Stamina has not been properly appreciated in the handicapping game. American dirt racing is all about speed, or at least that’s what it has been simplified to in appearance. Perhaps that’s why speed figures have been most readily accepted in dirt racing, and often questioned as reliable on turf (and more recently synthetic surfaces). Once stamina comes into play and front-running speed is reduced in importance, so, too, goes the importance of speed figures.
Maybe that’s why I enjoy handicapping the synthetic surfaces and turf races more than most handicappers. I’ve never relied on speed figures to land me on my next winner, and I’ve always handicapped races with an extremely suspicious eye for identifying overrated early speed horses. Sure, when you can find a front-runner with a pace edge in a race lacking other speed pressure, it’s the most dangerous scenario in all of handicapping. Lone speed is nearly unbeatable if the possessor has any talent whatsoever. But you don’t need a slide rule and calculator to figure that part out.
There are 100 or more ways to handicap a horse race. Just be careful in trusting a 100 figure as the singular reason you’re knuckling down on your XpressBet account and making that next wager. There’s no quick way around sound handicapping judgments that have always included pace, class, distance, visuals, fitness and more. If you can put a singular number on all that, more power to you. Some numerical services include more factors than others, no doubt, and perhaps do a better job at giving a more-rounded presentation of a horse’s ability than others.
But as for me, I’ll always consider handicapping more art than science. And the last I knew, you couldn’t put a 98 on a Matisse or a 104 on a Picasso.
Fan Versus Financials 2010-06-14
XpressBet RaceChat Host Joe Kristufek
Horseracing is the only sport that allows fans to participate.
We can’t influence the outcome, but the result determines whether or not we get paid on the wagers we’ve constructed.
On a typical Saturday, there are roughly 200 Thoroughbred races run nationwide. Some of those races have full fields, most of them don’t. Some of those races are of the stakes variety, but most of them are for claiming horses. There is a winner in every race, but based on playability, not all of them are worth chasing.
For me, horseracing is many things. First of all, I’m a fan. I love watching horses with talent develop into something special. I crave the classic races, and the rivalries, which are few and far between.
Secondly, it’s how I make my living. I’m lucky enough to say that I’ve turned a hobby into my job. Rarely do I actually hang out and enjoy a day at the races, but I can also count on one hand how many times a year I don’t feel like going to “work”.
The wagering aspect of the sport closes belatedly for show. I love playing the races, but often times work gets in the way of my play. I analyze and have an opinion on a lot of races, but simply don’t have the time to map out strategic tickets, and I’ve learned that rushed wagers are often a losing proposition. As a public handicapper, I have a vested interest in the races I pick without having to put down a single dollar.
That being said, I have my moments. I bet always bet the horses I like on the square, and have days where I get the bug and get gimmick happy.
I am a big fan of both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, but can honestly say I’ve never cashed a ticket on either.
I’ve also never bet against either one.
On April 30 at Churchill, Unrivaled Belle beat Rachel Alexandra in the G2 La Troienne Stakes at Churchill. IMHO, she was a huge overlay at 9-1 off a sharp stakes score at Gulfstream, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger. I wanted Rachel to win. It’s good for the game if she does.
Horseracing is on an island. Outside of the Triple Crown races, and maybe the Breeders’ Cup, the game gets very little mainstream exposure.
We need Zenyatta versus Rachel, and when it happens, we need both superstars to be in peak form with no excuses. This weekend, they took a solid step in that direction.
For me, betting against either would be a contradiction. Wagering comes third.
BELMONT STRATEGY GOES OFF TUNE 2010-06-09
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat Host
Quoting George Michael -- the 1980-‘90s British singer, not the late creator of the famed Sports Machine -- “You gotta have faith.”
How else can you explain the love-hate relationship handicappers have with the horses we seemingly adore? As easy as it is to mention, having true faith in the horses we appreciate can be testing. The 2010 Belmont Stakes made that painfully obvious to yours truly.
For 23 weeks, you may know that I dissect the 3-year-old crop with a fine-tooth comb for my ESPN.com “Countdown to the Crown” series. In it, I estimate this year’s total word count to be approximately 80,000, which means two things: 1, we don’t miss much; and 2, I really need to find some outside hobbies.
Throughout those 23 weeks and 80,000 words, two wiseguy horses that I felt I discovered as serious Triple Crown candidates kept popping up.
Their names?
Drosselmeyer and Fly Down.
In the game of scouting, which is different than handicapping, you’re not looking for a body of work, but rather a flash of brilliance that lets you know on his best day this horse can be better than just about anyone else in the division. Drosselmeyer showed that to me in his January 31 allowance win at Gulfstream, where he leveled off like a top-class horse and visually ran his 1-1/8 miles exactly the way you want to see a good horse do it: efficient strides, no wasted motion. To boot, he resided in the shedrow of perhaps the most patient handler in modern racing times, Hall of Famer Bill Mott. We had him No. 17 in our inaugural ESPN.com Countdown rankings when the year opened Jan. 8 (which had Lookin at Lucky #1 and Super Saver #2, providing a pre-season sweep in the rankings for eventual Triple Crown winners.)
Fly Down came to fruition even sooner, but later, if you hear me out. He caught my eye after winning a Churchill Downs maiden route race last November. I say “after” for a reason. If ever there was a key race in the 2-year-old to 3-year-old ranks, this one was it. The second, third, fifth and sixth-place finishers all would return to win their next starts, including none other than eventual Preakness runner-up and Belmont third-place finisher First Dude. Horses like Down With Dixie reappeared strongly at Fair Grounds, while In The Paint became multiple stakes-placed in Turfway Park’s 3-year-old series.
When Fly Down returned to win his 3-year-old debut Feb. 21, once again beating First Dude, trainer Nick Zito was unabashed about the fact that he felt THIS was his Belmont Stakes horse. He all but eliminated discussion about trying to make the Kentucky Derby and left direct messages that he would work to peak Fly Down at Belmont in June. Fly Down rocketed into my Top 20 list before his 3-year-old debut, actually in the Week 5 edition of the year (Feb. 4) at No. 17, because of how well horses were currently running that he had dispatched in the fall.
That Feb. 4 poll had as good a line on the 2010 Triple Crown crop as I can remember in Countdown’s five seasons online. Take a look from ESPN.com and you’ll see 5 of the top 17 at that time would go on to place in Triple Crown races. When you eliminate the five higher-ranked horses who were injured along the way, it turns out five of the top 12 “still active” horses ranked Feb. 4 placed in a Triple Crown race. Nine of those healthy 12 actually started in a Triple Crown race:
Jeremy Plonk's top 20: Week 5 of the 2010 season
1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY
2. SUPER SAVER
3. AMERICAN LION
4. WILLIAM'S KITTEN
5. BUDDY'S SAINT
6. LENTENOR
7. DROSSELMEYER
8. JACKSON BEND
9. CONVEYANCE
10. STAY PUT
11. SAVEMYSPOTIMBETING
12. CARACORTADO
13. NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR
14. VALE OF YORK
15. RULE
16. ESKENDEREYA
17. FLY DOWN (new)
18. RON THE GREEK
19. MAXIMUS RULER
20. DUBLIN (new)
The sparkle that these runners showed early in the year became tainted in my handicapping mind as the spring progressed. As time wore on, and horses turned in efforts that were not quite up to what they had hinted, the fact is that I lost faith in my own eyes. Super Saver fell out of favor when he failed to pass a helpless speedball in the Arkansas Derby; Drosselmeyer didn’t deliver in a poorly planned set of races in Louisiana, as didn’t Fly Down. At least I remained faithful to Lookin At Lucky, whose Preakness victory rewarded the continued confidence.
But what I failed to remember and abide by when evaluating many members of this year’s crop, specifically Drosselmeyer and Fly Down in the Belmont, is that the Triple Crown trail is different than every day handicapping. Normal fundamentals do not apply for one very specific reason: the calendar dictates what horses do leading up to Triple Crown races, not the trainers. You can’t pass a race on the schedule that’s dictated to you, unlike turning the page in the condition book and waiting for another everyday race to appear.
A horse pairing up thirds and fourths in claiming or allowance conditions should lose our handicapping respect as a runner unable to meet the challenge, barring any unforeseen trouble lines or exceptional challengers. But a horse mired in mediocre finishes because their timing is off on the Triple Crown trail should be given many, many mulligans when he’s flashed the brilliance of a potential star to your eyes.
It’s not Drosselmeyer’s or Fly Down’s fault that their connections jammed them into races at Fair Grounds via Florida that didn’t fit their schedules and travel properly. But those decisions set back their progression and form appearance temporarily while attempting to meet the challenges of reaching the first Saturday in May. They also, mistakenly, clouded my judgment on just how good those two horses remained.
Drosselmeyer remained very high on my list up until the time came when I had to remove him from my rankings. As a contributor to the polls in the Louisville Courier-Journal and several other websites, in order to meet compliance, there were rumblings about leaving horses in the rankings who were not going to run in the Derby. In the final week of full rankings, I still had Drosselmeyer #4 in the nation behind Lookin at Lucky, Eskendereya and Sidney’s Candy. Given the injury to Eskendereya, it’s fair to say I liked Drosselmeyer as the #3 sophomore in America after all the preps had been run, even after his losses in Louisiana.
But I lost faith after watching the Dwyer and Triple Crown races unfold. With nothing to show for a Belmont Stakes result that should have been crystal clear to me, all I have left is a hard lesson learned.
“Keeping the Faith.”
And, besides, I like Billy Joel a heckuva lot more than George Michael.
Who do you like? 2010-06-07
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
As a public handicapper in Chicago for the better part of the last decade, in both print and on television, my job has been to give the reader, or viewer, food for thought.
Those of us who fill that role are asked to pick every race on a particular card, but in reality, there are usually only a couple races a day that we deem as “playable”.
Recognized when walking around the racetrack, I’m often asked who I “like” in a particular race. I have no problem offering up a suggestion, but it often comes with a “proceed with caution” warning.
It’s impossible to “like” a horse in every race. Every selection comes with a confidence rating, low to middle to high.
In wagering, discipline is the key to success. Sure there are some days where I crave action and bet more races than I should, but for the most part, I’ve learned to weigh the size of my wagers based on the level of confidence, and risk versus potential reward.
For the longest time, I thought my best shot at cashing tickets was to pick winners, which meant a good percentage of my bankroll was dedicated to multi-race wagers (daily doubles, pick threes and pick fours), but recently I came to the realization that my best shot at making a consistent profit is to sink deeper into one race.
Chances are in a four-race sequence, I’m only going to have a high level of confidence in one, maybe two of them. The other two or three races are just guesses, which usually means using multiple horses and hoping for the best. Sometimes the stars align, the key horse or horses win and usable price shots take down the other legs, but more often than not, at least for me (the king of three out of four) a glitch occurs along the way.
When you focus on one race, your opinion is a lot more fluid. If you take your time constructing tickets based on your beliefs within that race, and your key horse or horses do their job, you’re going to make a profit, the only question is, how big will the score be?
So I’m changing my approach to wagering. I’ll let you know how it turns out!
NUMBERS TO FLY BY 2010-06-04
By Bob Neumeier, NBC Sports handicapper and Host of XpressBet RaceChat
24.
That is the number that has recently been in the crosshairs of the sports and entertainment world. Earlier this week, certain Hall Of Fame outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. retired from baseball, joining Willie Mays as superstar center fielders that wore #24 on the back of their uniforms.
Fans of the Fox TV network are likely lamenting the end of the popular series “24,” starring Kiefer Sutherland. In my universe, Jack Bauer remains one of the greatest TV personalities of our time after taking the baton from Tony Soprano.
24 is also the number worn by Mr. Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers, who is currently trying to add the Boston Celtics to his list of NBA championship victims. He, too, will be trying to beat the :24 second clock on offensive possessions. So pray tell, what does Griffey, Mays, Bauer, Bryant and the pro basketball clock have to do with the Belmont Stakes?
In horse racing, the brilliance of a classic Thoroughbred can be measured in 24-second increments. We are not referring to sprint races, where horses can barrel through much faster times at sprint distances. No, we are talking about an ability to sustain quarter-mile splits of :24 seconds-and-change in longer distances like 1 1/8 miles and upward.
It is the rare horse that has this special speed and stamina. In the Wood Memorial in April, Eskendereya earned potential Kentucky Derby favoritism by zipping off consecutive quarters of :24-and-change. It’s a shame that an injury prevented him from running in the Derby, because any effort close to those fractions in New York would have clearly resulted in a complete decimation of the field. In short, he would have won by 10 or more lengths.
Belmont favorite Ice Box ran his first half in :50.29, his middle-quarter in a legitimate :48.46 (2 x :24), and his final quarter in a slow :26.12, yet visually he was mowing down the field like they were running in quicksand. People have opined that the track was “slow” at Churchill that day. Yet, a quick comparison of times in other races tells me that the track was about average that day at Churchill Downs. History will prove that the 2010 Kentucky Derby will be one of the slowest on record.
On May 8, a windy day at Belmont Park, six main track races produced final clockings on the slowish side. Granted, the quality of these races were sub-par. Yet take a look at the splits of Dwyer winner Fly Down (:48.55, :24.97, :24.55, :12.18) while completing his final time of 1:50 1/5. These are times that show this :24 second quarter pattern for this Nick Zito trainee. If he runs close to those numbers at 1-1/2 miles, he should dominate the Belmont Stakes field. That longshot Drosslemeyer should be beaten by just six lengths by Fly Down with a lousy trip, then both should be looked at in the Belmont gimmicks.
24 --- Mays, Griffey Jr., Bauer, Kobe, and Fly Down.
PICK SIX FORTUNE-TELLING 2010-06-02
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat Host
“Life-changing score” is a term kicked around the racetrack by horseplayers and TV pundits. It’s the gold at the end of the rainbow that lures most into the pick six, and certainly will this weekend as Belmont Park offers a $1 million guaranteed pick six pot of riches on Saturday’s card.
While Belmont also will offer a $1 million guaranteed pick four pool, landing that prize likely will get you “only” a somewhat shiny used car at the local lot. Score the pick six, however, and you may be able to buy his-and-hers treats from your local BMW dealership.
I’m not a pick six player; never have been. I hit five of six once as a teenager, yet the “bug” never inflicted me to keep firing at the wager. A few times in my days on the ESPN and NBC production teams at big races, I’ve joined with others in creating a rather large syndicate ticket to take a shot. Sometimes it was my responsibility to craft the ticket.
No matter if I had $6 to work with or $2500, the pick six never came home to roost with me. Still, I can count the number of times I’ve played a pick six in my lifetime on two hands, and still have enough fingers left over to offend a few fellow drivers stuck in traffic. It’s not for everyone (me included). But, rest assured, I’ll be involved in the pick four pool as that wager is in my everyday confidence/comfort zone.
People often ask questions about wagering strategies and how to attack races in our XpressBet RaceChat sessions. No one has the right answer, no matter how many books they’ve penned on the subject or how many tickets they’ve claimed to cash. It’s all relative to your lifestyle, personality and bankroll. And there’s no shame in saying you’re not attracted to the lure, and absolutely no shame in taking a small flyer wager on the pick six in hopes that this is your life-changing day.
Here are a few factors to consider before investing seriously in the pick six. By seriously, I’m talking about at least half of your daily bankroll on a normal day.
1) Can you afford to lose this money today? That’s the golden rule in wagering: Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
2) Do I have a strong enough opinion on the card, with at least two or three solid singles? (Singles are races in which you have only one contender played on your ticket.)
3) Will playing this pick six allow me enough bankroll to still be able to play my strongest opinions on the card in intra-race bets? There’s no sicker feeling than having a slew of nice-priced winners and nothing to show for it because you tapped out somewhere else down the line.
The average bettor invests between $150 and $200 on a given racing card as a per capita. If you were to use $72 of your bankroll into the pick six, you could give yourself a chance at an interesting ticket that also would allow you some leftover money worthy of playing the rest of the card if you pick your spots judiciously on intra-race bets. Consider a $72 pick six ticket that’s framed as such: 3x3x2x2x1x1 = $72
In two of the pick six legs, you can go three contenders deep. In two more, select your top two choices. And in two others, you have to have a strong enough opinion to land a pair of singles. Is it a stretch to think you can hit the pick six on this kind of ticket? Of course it is. That’s why the pick six sometimes can pay a half-million dollars or more for every $2.
It’s not supposed to be easy. But it can be fun and certainly life-changing if you’re right.
If you’re playing the pick six on Belmont’s $1 million guaranteed pool day Saturday, good luck! Drop into RaceChat and let me know how you’re doing as the sequence progresses. Share the thrill with others. After all, when you land that life-changing score, half the fun is for others to live vicariously through you!
The Slump Buster 2010-06-01
XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
As my late, great friend Kevin Goemmer used to say when his horseplay was off kilter, “I’m going so badly, I couldn’t pick Dennis Rodman out of the jockey’s room right now”.
With all due respect “Goem”, you said that way too often. ;-p
We’ve all been there. No matter what we do, we just can’t seem to cash a ticket. Before the start of a race, you can almost sense that the horse you loaded up on will be sandwiched as soon as he leaves the gate. You can’t get a photo to go your way. You’re constantly split in the Exactas. You have the first two horses in a Pick Three, but the three horses you used in the third leg run second, third and fourth. Finally you’re horse crosses the wire first, only to be disqualified.
Sometimes this game seems sooooooo easy. We’re on fire. The horses are running like trained pigs. How do I ever lose?
Other times we can’t seem to get out of our own way.
So how do we shake a slump?
Hey, even Albert Puljos had a rough start to the month of May, but he hit three homers in a game last week, against MY Cubs, OF COURSE!
When trying to shake a slump, the most important thing we can do is to remain positive. Negative vibes transform into negative results. If you lose a tough photo or get a bad ride, shake it off and move on.
Secondly, and most importantly, don’t chase your money. When you take the blow of a bad beat, especially on a race that you thought you should have made a sweet profit, the immediate response is to get mad and try to get it back. It used to happen to me often, but after taking several lumps I realized that the majority of the time, such a reaction only adds to your misery.
Remember the good times and stick to what has made you successful in the past. If you get away from your strength, chances are you’ll miss your next cycle of good fortune.
Don’t change your betting strategies. If you’re a Trifecta player, stick to playing Trifectas. If you’re game is grinding out a profit through “across the board” plays, remain confident and ride out the storm.
If you just can’t seem to get out of your rut, order your favorite meal (I enjoyed a savory #11 from Mr. Taco just last night), buy a new outfit or CD, donate clothes you never wear to charity, dial up your ex-girlfriend (well, maybe not) – do something that makes you feel good – something that will put a smile on your face.
On the flip side of the coin – when you’re hot, roll with the punches. For every bad streak, there’s a good one, and when things are going your way, toss conservatism right out the window. If you’re substantially ahead for the day, and a race you like is staring you in the face, don’t be afraid to take a chance on hitting a big one. Such gambles can turn a good day into a truly memorable one.
On the other hand, if you’ve made your money on races you were confident in, don’t get careless and bet just for the sake of betting. Don’t give it back! Sure, in your mind you may have some bankroll to “play” with, but always remember, you are NOT betting with their money. Sometimes breaking even after being way ahead feels worse than losing from the very beginning. Well, not really, but you get my point.
Horse racing is just a game, but it’s also a game with consequence. If you’re in a slump, take a deep breath and start all over. Forget about the past, and look forward to the future. If you’re hot, do your best to stay in the kitchen for as long as possible, but be smart about the entrees you order up.
NOT ALONG FOR THIS RIDE 2010-05-27
By Bob Neumeier, XpressBet RaceChat Host
I have been somewhat surprised and disappointed that so many racing online chatters have been unduly critical of jockeys in the aftermath of a given race. It is easy to play the blame game, especially when money is riding on the outcome. Players need to take responsibility for losing bets.
The storyline of this year’s Preakness Stakes will likely give credence to those who believe in the importance of the jockey in winning races. We all know the story by now. After a string of disappointing finishes, trainer Bob Baffert fired the brilliant Garrett Gomez and replaced him with upstart rider Martin Garcia on Lookin At Lucky. Once they crossed the Pimlico finish line, Baffert was viewed as a training genius, Garcia as a savior, and Gomez as an over-rated bum.
That’s silly.
As Baffert was quick to point out, the rider switch had more to do with bad karma than an indictment on the obvious ability of Gomez. Given a similar trip, Gomez would have won the Preakness just like Garcia.
If the NFL is a copy-cat league, perhaps so is high-level thoroughbred racing. After Baffert’s success with his change, perhaps that is the reason why the combo of Winstar Farm and trainer Bill Mott have sacked Kent Desormeaux on Drosselmeyer in the upcoming Belmont Stakes. The parallels are obvious. Like Lucky, Drosselmeyer is riding an extended losing streak and Kent’s ride in the Dwyer was suspect. Formally as thick as thieves, the Mott-Desormeaux relationship has teetered as a marriage not made in heaven. At the Gulfstream meeting, Desormeaux rode some of Mott’s live mounts. Others he did not…a far cry from the inseparable pairing that we have come to know.
So, if his new rider, Mike Smith, wins the Belmont Stakes on Drosselmeyer, then the brigade of those who believe in the importance of the jockey will be bumping their chests. Not me. I am not shilling for the jockey community. They could and should be criticized for poor performances.
But in the vast majority of cases, losing bets are due to bad handicapping and the fickle nature of lady luck.
With Knowledge Comes Interest 2010-05-24
by: XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
For decades, horseracing has searched for an identity.
We’ve marketed ourselves as an entertainment venue, yet tracks measure their success or failure by final handle numbers.
On a typical Saturday, thousands of fans push their way through the turnstiles of racetracks nationwide. A small percentage of them are “experts”. A larger number are regulars. Next you have your casuals, those who come to the track a couple times a year armed with a basic knowledge of the sport. Finally, you have the newcomer.
The experts are there for the long haul. They love the game. They relish the challenge.
The regulars also enjoy the sport a great deal, but many of them crave additional knowledge.
The majority of the casuals and newcomers come to the track to socialize, have a few drinks and make a few bets. They’re not interested in learning much more about horseracing than the already know.
BUT, there ARE many people in each of the above categories who want to learn more. They want to understand the past performances and make wagers that give them the best opportunity to win.
As an industry, we need to focus on converting newcomers and casuals into regulars, and the best way to do this is through casual, hands on education.
On Preakness Day, while Jeremy Plonk and I were handling RaceChat duties, fellow host Brian Spencer, was out in the infield manning the “Pro Tent”. He was engaged all day long by lost souls trying to find their way. They all left their visit with Brian with much more knowledge than they started with.
During the course of the summer at Arlington Park, my home track, I will conduct 18 “Learn to Win” seminars. Held near the entrance to the park area where the casuals and newcomers dwell, the purpose is to give those who crave knowledge an opportunity to learn.
Also this summer, we’re introducing educational “Night School” chats, where we’ll explore various aspects of handicapping and wagering in an interactive format.
Night School Chat Schedule (all times 8 p.m. EDT)
Monday, June 21 - Approaching a Day at the Races
Monday, July 12 - Wagering Strategies
Monday, July 19 - Jockey/Trainer Handicapping
Monday, Aug. 2 - Reading Between the Lines
Monday, Aug. 16 - Handicapping Turf Races
My goal is not to create degenerate gamblers. It’s to give those who are interested in playing the races the proper tools to work with.
With knowledge comes interest. With interest comes confidence. With confidence comes informed wagering. With informed wagering comes success. With success comes additional wagering. With additional wagering comes a healthier industry.
It really is a simple formula, don’t you think?
SHORE THING AT MONMOUTH 2010-05-19
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat Host
Monmouth Park, which opens its 2010 racing season on Saturday, has it all right: weekend racing, 50 dates for the entire meeting, and beaucoup purses. What that should mean to the consumer, you and I as horseplayers, is bigger fields, better quality runners and a far more appealing product.
That’s all you can ask for as a horseplayer when you crack open the past performances. Big purses insure a truer racing meet for a few reasons.
One, no one will be just giving a horse “an out” to get their feet under them. When you have limited chances to run, and the ones you are running in are worth $50,000-plus, you come with your A-game every time. Expect the horses running at Monmouth to be cranked for their best, even from opening weekend. Horses with a focused workout tab will have been drilling every 6 or 7 days without interruption and have some gusto on the clock.
Two, world class connections will be present, which insure a truer racing meet. Low-profile barns aren’t going to go on unpredictable hot streaks when faced with the game’s best trainers on a race-in, race-out basis. The top jockeys in the world won’t be able to dominate the toteboard either. The days of seeing Jersey Joe Bravo at 3-5 every race are history at Monmouth – at least for 2010. Soon, you’ll be wondering how you let Velazquez and Gomez go at double-digit prices instead.
The weekend cards throughout the Mid-Atlantic will really have to work to keep pace with Monmouth. Fields at Delaware Park, Philadelphia Park and Belmont Park most specifically will be impacted. Given Monmouth’s traditionally fast main track, I would expect the sprint races to be fantastically competitive with horses from around the region. If you have an early speed burner, the purses and surface will be beckoning at Monmouth.
As for the turf racing, Monmouth’s grass is a much quicker turf course than those at Delaware Park and Monmouth Park. Early speed horses shipping in from either circuit could be aimed at the Monmouth meeting with gusto. Those Belmont horses coming out of one-turn grass races often are candidates to explode around two bends at Monmouth and should be armed and dangerous.
I will be following Monmouth much closer this year than ever before for all these reasons. It’s the model I most anticipate being the future and what’s best for racing; and for that reason alone, it’s a meeting worth supporting!
Practice What You Preach 2010-05-17
By XpressBet RaceChat host Joe Kristufek
One of the major points I try to pound home with people in the XpressBet RaceChats and in any seminars that I do is – “never make a bet before the post parade”.
The lesson I learned on Preakness Day?
“Practice what you preach”.
I’m not a big fan of “bad beat” stories, but perhaps this one keep all of us from making the same mistake moving forward.
There were only three horses I felt were capable of winning the Preakness – Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, the obvious bounce-back horses Lookin at Lucky and the super sleeper First Dude.
Saturday’s Pimlico RaceChat was crazy. We hosted close to 3,000 people, and the participation was exceptional. Thank you all!
Co-host Jeremy Plonk and I knew the closer to post time for the Preakness, the busier the RaceChat would get. With so much time before the big race, JP and I decided to take turns manning the RaceChat while the other guy took care of making their bets.
A key component to wagering on big races is the ability to take a stand against horses other people like.
I was against “contenders” Caracortado, Paddy ‘O Prado and Schoolyard Dreams all week. Northern Giant was an easy toss. Pleasant Price did not look good galloping on Friday morning. That narrows it down to four “other” horses. Of those who were left, I liked Dublin best, but thought that Jackson Bend, Ywanna Twist and Aikenite were useable in the back of the gimmicks.
I boxed Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and First Dude in the Exacta, and played a $1 Superfecta using those three first and second, adding Dublin for third and hitting the all ball for fourth ($72 bet).
When it was time for the post parade, I went out to the balcony for a look. Super Saver was on his toes and Lookin at Lucky was ready to go, but the on-track standout was Jackson Bend.
I figured Jackson Bend as a 20-1 shot in the race, but he was live at 12-1. He always runs his eyeballs out, and he looked great on the track.
I hustled back to my computer to alert the RaceChat audience that “Jackson Bend looked sensational on the track” and to “upgrade his chances”.
Had I bet AFTER the post parade, like I always do, there’s no doubt in my mind that, based on the tote action and his fantastic post parade presence, Jackson Bend would have slipped into the show spot on my Superfecta ticket.
They run the race, and when the horses crossed the line, I was left standing there in disbelief. Lookin at Lucky, First Dude, JACKSON BEND and Ywanna Twist. I doped out the Preakness as well as one could. This was my chance at a huge score.
I’m not complaining. I got really fat on the Exacta, and if First Dude doesn’t hold off Jackson Bend by a nose for place, I got nothing, but ohhhhhh what could have been!
I hate “bad beat” stories, especially when they’re my own!
PREAKNESS POST POSITION DRAW ANALYSIS 2010-05-12
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat Host and Horseplayernow.com Analyst
After the defection of Hurricane Ike, the excitement of post position draw day subsided as the major players for Preakness 135 all drew starting spots that should flatter their styles. The field of 12 was entered and drawn without much major drama to a horseplayer’s considerations.
Lookin At Lucky (No. 7), Super Saver (No. 8), Caracortado (No. 9) and Paddy O’Prado (No. 10) all have drawn alongside one another, and those contenders’ riders will find it easy to locate their primary targets. Based on the morning line, those are the predicted top 4 choices in the wagering.
Wide-drawn Dublin, in post No. 12, figures to be a drop-back closer anyway, and with a long run into the first turn, he should not be impacted in terms of ground loss. Inside-drawn Aikenite (No. 1) also is a drop-back closer and should not be hindered by the rail.
Don’t be swayed by all-time post position stats in terms of the Preakness. Most years this race has had much smaller fields than what we’re used to in the past few years. That’s why you see so many victories by the inside posts.
Without Hurricane Ike in the field, the pace of the Preakness is up to the riders. Calvin Borel might just put Super Saver on the engine and make them beat him with some bravado. Jackson Bend might show more speed than you think from post No. 6, while Lookin at Lucky is going to show more speed as well. That would be the first three heading into the first turn from this perspective.
As for the morning line, Super Saver figures to be a half-point shorter from my eye, at 2-1, with Lookin at Lucky the clear second choice at 3-1 or 7-2.
Team Rachel Should Include Calvin 2010-05-10
By Joe Kristufek, XpressBet RaceChat Host
On Saturday at Pimlico, Super Saver and his partner Calvin Borel will attempt to take the second of three steps in their pursuit of an elusive Triple Crown.
There’s something magical about Calvin. He’s a great rider who always seems to be in the right place at the right time, especially at Churchill Downs. He is great for racing. He exudes honesty and personality, and is refreshingly humble.
Calvin slipped out the back door following his heartbreaking La Troienne loss aboard Rachel Alexandra. It wasn’t the purse money he cared about. He felt like he let the industry down.
Calvin had to shake off the hurt and unwarranted criticism for the Rachel ride and focus on the Kentucky Derby, and he did just that. Less than 24 hours later, Calvin was back atop his throne at Churchill Downs following his successful Run for the Roses aboard Super Saver.
Calvin may have ownership rights to the Churchill rail. For the third time in the last four years, he saved all the ground, and despite having 19 other horses in the field, he never got stopped. He closed from much further back with Street Sense and Mine That Bird, but this time he got a known speed horse to stalk before making his patented move.
As for Calvin’s ride on Rachel Alexandra, it was perfect IMHO. He took some heat for not hustling her to the lead, but if he does and goes too fast, he uses horse for no reason. What he did was sit just outside an overmatched rival in hand, which, to me, outside of the pocket trip on Poly or synthetics, is the best trip you could get in a horse race. Rachel ran on, and dug in when challenged. She just got beat by an up and coming star in her own right. If Unrivaled Belle weren’t in the race, Rachel would have theoretically won by five lengths (margin back to third place finisher Morena), and the racing world would have stood on their heads in support of her.
In the aftermath, neither owner Jess Jackson nor trainer Steve Asmussen stood in defense of Calvin. Asmussen went so far as to tell the Daily Racing Form that “the excuses are obvious when you go to searching."
Rachel isn't the same horse she was last year, but that doesn't mean she won't be at some point this season. If Jess Jackson serves divorce papers on Calvin on behalf of Rachel, it will not be deserved. It was Rachel and Calvin, Calvin and Rachel, eight times en route to a Horse of the Year title in ’09. They should go down in racing history as a team.
GEARING UP FOR PIMLICO 2010-05-05
The XpressBet Preakness Wagering Guide seems simple enough to put together. But, just as is the case with the horses involved in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, it’s the timing that puts on the pressure.
This week we’re in production with the Wagering Guide, of which I serve as managing editor and stats contributor. Our cast of expert analysts once again includes RaceChat host/NBC Sports handicapper Bob Neumeier, NBC’s Mike Battaglia, the HRTV pair of Jeff Siegel and Jon White, Sirius radio’s Steve Byk and Dick Jerardi of the Philadelphia Daily News.
You can download a free copy of the XpressBet Preakness Wagering Guide beginning Friday. The thoughts and stats included give you an early bird look at the fall-out from the Derby and the look-ahead to the Preakness. Even if the field is not set in stone, the information within serves as a great springboard to your Pimlico mindset. Online updates begin next week for our experts’ final picks in the likely case of field changes.
Just as important, between now and May 15 we’ll provide at XpressBet.com the most thorough Preakness and Pimlico coverage ever held anywhere. With our exclusive RaceChat live analysis, you can join me, Joe Kristufek, Brian Spencer and Bob Neumeier live from Old Hilltop next week and get up-close insights as to how the track is playing, the key buzz and more. Our daily Pimlico RaceChats kick off every racing week on Thursday through Sunday, including tomorrow! Track announcer Dave Rodman and morning line maker Frank Carulli also are regulars in our daily Pimlico chats and they’re insight will be invaluable.
No one covers a racecard like XpressBet RaceChat, as more than 40,000 racing fans have found out in the past month alone. On Derby Day, we had exclusive information and access with Churchill Downs track superintendent Butch Lehr as the weather conditions changed the racing surface throughout the day. It’s that kind of insight that makes playing the races with our team like no other.
As someone who grew up about 45 minutes from Pimlico and spent many an afternoon on the corner of Rogers and Winner as a kid, the Preakness holds a near and dear place in my heart. For me, it’s bigger than the Belmont Stakes because of my upbringing and personal attachment. I can’t wait to get back in town next week and reminisce while looking forward to a great showdown and reappearance of Super Saver. I’m not among the droves who think the sport needs a Triple Crown winner, or that it would go any distance in “saving the sport,” but I sure dig the big event.
It’s a big week this week getting ready for the Preakness, and it only gets bigger next week! Be sure to play along with the XpressBet Preakness Wagering Guide and our Pimlico RaceChats.
Jeremy Plonk
XpressBet RaceChat Host
One down, Two to Go 2010-05-03
By Joe Kristufek, XpressBet RaceChat Host
Haven’t you heard?
The last Triple Crown winner was Affirmed in 1978.
Don’t you get sick of saying/hearing that?
Seven of the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners -- Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones and Big Brown – sipped from the Preakness cup too, only to be denied their place in history in the Belmont Stakes.
Four of the last five years, the Derby winner’s road to the Triple Crown hit a Preakness pot hole.
In 2005, Alfeet Alex, the horse that probably should have won the Derby, nearly fell, but still took the Preakness. Derby upsetter Giacomo was a dull third.
In 2006, Derby champ Barbaro broke down, and Bernardini won the Preakness for fun.
In 2007, Curlin caught Street Sense in the final jumps, denying a Triple Crown opportunity.
In 2009, a filly named Rachel grounded Mine That Bird.
Super Saver is next in line. He’s a nice horse, but is he special?
The Triple Crown is grueling. You’re asking a fragile Thoroughbred to expend every drip of energy over four miles in five weeks with fresh bullets being fired at him three different times.
I respect tradition, but I’m not a traditionalist. I’m the guy who thinks owners silks should be replaced by color coordinated jockey garb.
That’s another blog for another day.
If I were the czar of racing, the Preakness would be moved back a week.
Two-week wheel backs are for $5,000 claimers, not Triple Crown horses.
I know, I know. You do that, and the Triple Crown is tainted.
You can’t screw with tradition Joe!
Didn’t major league baseball expand their schedule from 154 games to 162?
That altered the record book.
Last I heard the NFL was seriously considering a plan to expand from 16 to 18 regular season games.
Doesn’t that change things up?
Does moving the Preakness back a week really “taint” the Triple Crown?
It might make it slightly easier to pull off, and I emphasize the word slightly. With three weeks between instead of two, the Preakness could potentially gain quality, making it even tougher to win. With the extra week, more Kentucky Derby also rans would likely run back.
In my fantasy world, it’s Kentucky Derby, three weeks until the Preakness and four weeks (instead of three) to the Belmont.
Why squeeze the lemon dry?
If you’re answer is to uphold history and tradition, that doesn’t fly with me.
A DIFFERENT DERBY EMERGENCY 2010-04-28
By Jeremy Plonk, host of XpressBet RaceChat
Two things matter most to me, family and the Kentucky Derby. Today was my annual chance to mesh the two as I had my wife, Andrea, and our 4-year-old daughter, Sophia, accompany me to my “workplace” on the backstretch at Churchill Downs. After a few days of driving rain, it was a welcome sight to see sunshine glisten off the horses and not raindrops.
I was 21 when I attended my first Derby in 1993. My daughter, she’s already 4-for-4, having been here in 2007, 2008, 2009 and now 2010. That’s a streak that I hope she continues throughout life. The Derby is something I’d love to pass down to her. Already in her young “career,” she’s petted champion Dreaming of Anna, been in the barn petting Mine That Bird, and today got to high five and yuck it up with jockey Rafael Bejarano.
This morning we stood on a set of bleachers ready to watch the Derby horses gallop, and specifically the workout for hopeful Endorsement. Struggling to see, she asked to be held up and I obliged as Lookin At Lucky, Devil May Care and all the heavyweights paraded by. And then, just when Endorsement cantered by and was ready to break into his final Derby workout, Sophia turns to my ear and whispers, “Daddy, I have to tinkle.”
Anyone who has parented young children has had this happen to them, and you have to move swiftly and without much debate. I rolled my eyes, stepped off the high-rise and hustled to the nearest bathroom. Gone was the chance to watch Endorsement, but at least we avoided a personal emergency.
After standing in line for the bathroom and then actually ruling the “emergency” a false alarm, Sophia and mommy returned smiling with a doughnut in hand. She caught the eye of a roving cameraman, and then got to be on the local Fox-41 affiliate waving for the cameras and welcoming everyone back from commercial break.
As for Dad, he just got a smile and figured it won’t be the last Derby workout he ever misses. But let’s just hope that it’s the last time I miss a workout for a false alarm.
Ah, the Derby! Pass it on.
Poly Daddys 2010-04-26
By Joe Kristufek, XpressBet RaceChat Host
Derby week it would be only natural for me to blog about Eskenderaya’s injury or the pros and cons of running Devil May Care on Saturday instead of Friday.
But isn’t EVERYBODY doing that?
Will be RaceChatting up Churchill Downs right here on XpressBet all week, so if you want to know my thoughts on the Kentucky Derby, pop in the room and ask. Myself, Jeremy Plonk, Bob Neumeier and a cast of characters will be in the zone all week long!
In addition to the Derby, I’m excited about this week for another reason. Thursday marks the opening of Arlington Park, my hometown track. I know the Chicago jockeys and trainers like the back of my hand. This is my circuit. The one I know best. The one I invest much of gambling dollar into.
In 2007, Arlington threw me a curveball by installing Polytrack. It’s been an adjustment to say the least, but in handicapping, I welcome variables.
One of those variables is pedigree. Are horses “bred” to like synthetics?
With several years of statistics to call upon, I think I’ve come up with a pretty good list of “synthetics” sires. I utilized win percentage, earnings, and my overall observations to compile it.
I hope it helps!
A star indicates they are doubly dangerous in my book.
Alphabet Soup, A. P. Indy, Belong to Me*, Bernstein*, Boundary*, Broken Vow, Cactus Ridge, Candy Ride*, Catienus, Chapel Royal*, Chester House, Composer, Concerto, Decarchy, Distant View, Dixie Union, E Dubai, El Corredor*, Empire Maker, Event of the Year, Forestry*, Friendly Lover, Ghostzapper, Giant’s Causeway*, Harlan’s Holiday, Hennessy, Indian Charlie, Joyeux Dancer, King Cugat, Kitten’s Joy, Langfuhr, Lucky Lionel, Maria’s Mon, Milwaukee Brew, Mizzen Mast, Montbrook, Mr. Greeley, Mutakddim, Northern Afleet*, Pembroke, Pikepass, Pleasant Tap, Pleasantly Perfect, Point Given, Proudest Romeo, Pure Prize*, Skip Away*, Sky Mesa*, Slew City Slew, Smart Strike, Spinning World, Stormy Atlantic*, Straight Man, Street Cry, Tactical Cat, Tale of the Cat, The Name’s Jimmy, Three Wonders, Tapit, Tiznow, Tour d’Or, Trail City, Trajectory, Tribal Rule*, Unusual Heat*, Vindication, War Chant, Wildcat Heir, Wild Event, and Yankee Gentleman*.
ANTICIPATING “THE WALK” 2010-04-22
By Bob Neumeier, NBC Sports Reporter and XpressBet RaceChat Host
NBC Sports began covering the Kentucky Derby in 2001, the year Monarchos returned 10-1 to win and a $1200 exacta with Invisible Ink. And no, I did not have such a ticket. What I did have was a wonderful opportunity to participate in the coverage and as a TV reporter and racing fan…nothing could be finer.
People ask me what is my favorite part of the Derby experience and the answer is simple and direct -- it’s the walkover. Our reporting team gathers at the gap with the 20 horses and their trainer-owner connections -- a kind of calm before the storm. The tension and excitement is palpable and to look over at the 150,000 fans can be overwhelming.
I remember walking with trainer Nick Zito when he had five contenders including the favorite Bellamy Road. Our job is to ask two or three questions and is never as easy as it may look. For one, our professional hand-held cameramen walk BACWARDS to get the shots and the sound-bites. Some trainers like the late Bobby Frankel do not wish to talk as they make their way to the paddock.
One year, trainer Shug Mcgaughey had Saarland in the race but had a nasty case of laryngitis…I almost had to translate his comments. Often, our producers like us to walk and talk to Derby newcomers, but often they are speechless with a case of stage-fright. Others like Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas are just the opposite---they’ll talk your ear off.
And the crowd? The noise can be deafening as we stroll toward the paddock. Zito and Baffert are particular fan-favorites and they will often have a running commentary with those that sit in the box seats by the rail. But for all of us -- reporters, cameramen, trainers, owners, et al -- it is nervous energy beyond your wildest expectations.
I know my heart rate goes up sharply during this time. And while our shoes and trousers may be caked in track mud when we finally reach the paddock, it is all worth it for people like Donna Brothers, Mike Battaglia, Kenny Rice, and others that have made that walk.
I have no idea who I will be walking with this year and frankly, it doesn’t matter to me. I’ll leave that decision to our production staff of Sam Flood, David Michaels, Rob Hyland and the hundreds of behind-the-scenes professionals who make the show sing.
Yes, lots of mud and a rapid heartbeat -- I wouldn’t trade places with anybody.
Who Needs Sleep When You Have All This? 2010-04-21
By Jeremy Plonk, XpressBet RaceChat Host, HorsePlayerNow.com, ESPN.com
If you work in retail, you know what the rush leading up to Christmas can be like. If you’re an accountant, you probably roll your eyes when friends ask if you’ve got any free time around April 15. For those of us working neck-deep in the Thoroughbred racing industry, welcome to the insane asylum of our professional being.
People often ask what my job is like. On weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, it’s like no other time in my life. Well, except for last year at this time. And the year before. And, well, you get the point. Rise at 6:30 a.m., hope to get to bed by 3 a.m. Sleep? I have forgotten what you look like, old friend.
I’ll be arriving on the scene at Churchill Downs this weekend, and then my schedule changes. Rise at 5 a.m., hit the barn area by 6 a.m., and hope to get to bed by midnight. I might actually get more sleep in Louisville than the weeks leading up to Derby Week, mostly because I force myself to be at my best for my a.m. assignments for the official Kentucky Derby notes team. I can’t wait to see which 5 or 6 Derby contenders I’ll be assigned to track daily for the press corps. Last year I had Mine That Bird among my daily assignments, and not even the tight association with Chip Woolley and the barn led me to get involved at 50-1. So much for inside information, right?
As you read this blog, I’m helping to put the finishing touches on the XpressBet Wagering Guide. As the guide’s managing editor, I work with a team of expert handicappers in sharing opinions and analysis on how the Derby shakes out. Be sure to download a free copy at XpressBet.com and eavesdrop on the thoughts of Bob Neumeier, Mike Battagia, Dick Jerardi, Jeff Siegel, Jon White and Steve Byk. Want a sneak peak of what’s inside? A whole lotta love for Eskendereya, and quite a few juicy longshots to consider in your exotic wagers.
My role as a racing stats geek allows me provide a lot of handicapping and historical information to the XpressBet Wagering Guide, while also being in demand for NBC Sports’ Triple Crown telecasts. Over the next several days, I’ll be completing a stats and facts booklet of about 60 pages of original, personally-produced content for the guys and gals on the telecast. It’s what helps Bob Costas gear up for horse racing after a season of football and baseball, and what helps Tom Hammond and Donna Brothers to immediately know after the race, “This is the first this has happened since …” kind of thing.
I’ve always been a stats and racing junkie; I guess the thousand-page baseball encyclopedia wasn’t just my favorite book as a kid for nothing. At least I put that thirst to use later in life.
I’d love to talk more Derby with you all, but, hey, Keeneland calls! We still have closing-week races in Lexington, and there’s no racing meet on Earth that gets my juices flowing any more than this one. Join me on XpressBet RaceChat all day Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for Keeneland live analysis and coverage. See, I told you I was busy this time of year.
Come say hello and cash some winners with me. There’s ALWAYS time for that!
It Pays to RaceChat! 2010-04-19
By Joe Kristufek, XpressBet RaceChat Host
There is no substitute for a live day at the races.
The sunshine, the thundering hooves, and most importantly, the camaraderie we share with friends and fellow horseplayers.
For most of us, the reality is we can’t make it to our neighborhood track every day. We work for a living and have lives outside of our horseplay.
Isn’t that why we all have XpressBet accounts?
This past winter, XpressBet teamed up with Horse Player NOW to introduce RaceChat - a live, interactive, horseracing hotspot.
The RaceChats have morphed into a horseplayer community. Some RaceChatters ask questions, others seek information and share opinions. Still others merely watch and learn. It’s the next best thing to hanging out at the racetrack with your buddies.
One of our regular RaceChatters is James Dickson from Chicago, Illinois. Known as “King James” in chat circles, Dickson recently chatted his way to a fifth place finish in the XpressBet Showdown, earning his way to National Handicapping tournament in February in Las Vegas.
Dickson, 35, develops software for investment strategies and he’s slated to earn his MBA from Northwestern in March ’11. A former handicapper for racingdigest.com, one of the first handicapping projects to hit the worldwide web, Dickson moved on once the company was sold, but his love of the game never wavered.
“I’ve never been a contest guy, but I decided to take a shot in the XpressBet LIVE tournament in late March,” Dickson explained. “I did well enough there to qualify for Showdown, and parlayed that into a berth in the NHC. I’m really psyched. I’ve got a legit shot to win a lot of money.”
Dickson’s winning formula was simple.
“The RaceChats played a major part in my success,” Dickson admitted. “I went into each tournament race with an opinion, looked for feedback from the chat hosts and fellow horseplayers in the room, made sure I was getting the right price, and then pulled the trigger.”
Dickson credits RaceChat hosts Brian Nadeau and Jeremy Plonk with helping him come up with two of the horses that put him over the top.
“On Saturday Nadeau and I talked through the logic of Positive Pitch ($16.00 winner at Aqueduct) and later in the day, Jeremy solidified my opinion on Exhi in the Lexington at Keeneland (19-1 upsetter),” Dickson said. “On Sunday, the RaceChat regulars all knew I was in contention, and the support they showed was tremendous. I’ve never met these people face to face, but from our interaction in the chats, it feels like I know a lot of them. We share information and root for each other to win. It’s very cool.”
Dickson’s success has not been limited to the tournaments.
“I’ve done well playing the horses before, but never this well,” Dickson said. “It’s not a coincidence. It started when I began utilizing the Horse Player NOW BUZZ (horses to watch service) and the XpressBet RaceChats. The combination of the insight on "trip" horses in the BUZZ, along with the on-the-fly post parade/bias analysis of the RaceChats has proved invaluable. It’s basically like having multiple brains breaking down these races instead of just my own, and it’s been hard to beat that combo.”
Dickson loves winning first and foremost, but the RaceChats have also strengthened his basic love of horseracing.
“The RaceChats give me a chance to talk about my favorite sport whenever I want,” Dickson said. “It gives a real sense of community not readily available to the average horseplayer. I firmly believe that the RaceChats are the most effective and fun way to follow and handicap the races.”
Congratulations “King James” and good luck in Vegas!
BEAT THE HOST AND GULFSTREAM OPENS 2010-01-01
It’s the first weekend of 2010 and there’s plenty of great racing action available. Saturday is the first day of the 2010 Beat the Host handicapping tournament. Don’t forget to register and play for your chance to Beat the Host. This week’s host is Jon White. Go to http://www.xpressbet.com/contests/BeattheHost2010.aspx for rules, registration, and Jon White’s races and picks.
Sunday is opening day of the 2010 Gulfstream meeting. The Gulfstream meet usually features some of the best winter racing, highlighted by the Florida Derby. Gulfstream races Wednesdays – Sundays with a post time of 1:15pm.
Zenyatta Highlights 2009 Breeders’ Cup 2009-11-05
Zenyatta’s barn has sent her to the Breeders’ Cup Classic instead of trying to go
for the repeat in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic. She is the 5-2 morning line
favorite and will be ridden by regular rider Mike Smith. She’ll face 12 other rivals
including Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird and Belmont Stakes winner
Summer Bird.
As expected, Rachel Alexandra will not be racing in the Breeders’ Cup this year.
There are six Breeders’ Cup races on Friday’s card. First post is 2:15pm ET.
There are eight Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday’s card. First post is 1:05pm ET.
XpressBet will offer wagering online and by phone for the Breeders’ Cup. There will also be advance wagering on Friday for Saturday’s card.
The wagering menu includes 10-cent superfectas and Super High 5 wagering in the Ladies’ Classic on Friday and the Classic on Saturday.
Also, there is a new wager called the Jockey Head2Head. Wagering on the Head2Head is just like wagering on a horse to win, except it will be jockeys. There will be a total of 13 individual jockeys and 1 all-others (14 total betting interests). The jockey that wins the most Breeders’ Cup races over the two day period will be the winner of the wager.
Here is the list of Head2Head Jockey Program Numbers:
Program Number. Jockey Name (# of mounts in Breeders’ Cup) – Morning Line Odds
1. Garret Gomez (11) – 3/1
2. Javier Castellano (4) – 50/1
3. Rafael Bejarano (7) – 40/1
4. Kent Desomreaux (9) – 10/1
5. John Murtagh (6) – 6/1
6. Frankie Dettori (7) – 6/1
7. John Velasquez (10) – 5/1
8. Ryan Moore (5) – 20/1
9. Joel Rosario (7) – 50/1
10. Mike Smith (6) – 12/1
11. Julien Leparoux (11) – 6/1
12. Alan Garcia (6) – 30/1
13. Rajiv Maragh (6) – 15/1
14. All other jockeys (all races) – 8/1
There is also a two-day double that will consist of the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic on Friday and the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday.
Enjoy the Breeders’ Cup and good luck at the races!
WHAT TO PLAY THIS WEEKEND 2009-10-02
Belmont’s championship meet is well underway and this Saturday features an excellent group of stakes races, highlighted by the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Below is a complete list of major stakes races this weekend.
Saturday, October 3:
Belmont Park – Jockey Club Gold Cup, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Vosburgh Stakes, Flower Bowl, Beldame
Hawthorne – Hawthorne Gold Cup
Philadelphia Park – Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes
Hoosier Park – Indiana Derby
Thistledown – Ohio Derby
Red Mile (H) – Kentucky Futurity
Sunday, October 4:
Oak Tree – Norfolk Stakes, Oak Leaf Stakes
Belmont – Pilgrim Stakes, Miss Grillo Stakes
These are just a few of the many great races available to wager on this weekend.
A Look Back at the Super Derby 2009-09-18
As the 30th running of the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs is scheduled this Saturday afternoon, I thought it would be a good chance to look at some of the horses that have won this race and what they did in their careers.
1983 - Sunny’s Halo: Second Canadian-bred to with the Kentucky Derby. He also won the Arkansas Derby. He broke the track record at Louisiana Downs when he won the Super Derby by 12 lengths.
1987 – Alysheba: He won the both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes before finishing fourth in the Belmont Stakes in his attempt to win the Triple Crown. As a 4-year-old he won the Santa Anita Handicap and Woodward Stakes before a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic which helped him secure the 1988 Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year.
1989 – Sunday Silence: Won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes as well as the Santa Anita Derby, San Felipe Stakes, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, all as a 3-year-old. Became one of Japan’s most successful sires.
2000 – Tiznow: Won the 2000 and 2001 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic as well as the Goodwood Handicap and the Santa Anita Handicap.
For being 30 years young, the Super Derby has already amassed quite a history. What 3-year-old will add to this legendary group? Find out Saturday at beautiful Louisiana Downs.
BELMONT DOUBLE GRADE I STAKES SATURDAY 2009-09-11
Belmont’s first Saturday of the fall championship meet is highlighted by two Grade I stakes races, the Ruffian Handicap for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up and the Garden City Handicap for 3-year-old fillies on the turf. Below are some things to look out for in those feature races.
Ruffian Handicap::
Expected Favorite: # 1 Seventh Street – is already a multiple Grade I winner this year by taking the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn earlier this meet as well as the Go For Wand Handicap at Saratoga in the slop. She is the even money morning line favorite.
Potential Upset: #5 Luna Vega – you don’t see 7-2 morning line horses as “upsets” much, but she may have a chance against #1 Seventh Street. She finished 6th to Seventh Street in the Go for Wand, but bounced back nicely with a victory in the Grade II Molly Pitcher Stakes at Monmouth Park. One of Steve Asmussen’s go to riders, Shaun Bridgmohan will take the ride.
Garden City Handicap::
Weather will be key for this race. If the weather is anything like Friday, then expect a soft or yielding turf course. If it dries out overnight, maybe it can be upgraded to good.
Expected Favorite: # 1 Gozzip Girl – has been fantastic, so matter where or what surface she races on. Already this year, she has three graded stakes wins, including the Grade I American Oaks at Hollywood Park in her last start. She has proven that a wet turf course won’t stop her, as she took the Grade 2 Sands Point at Belmont on May 30 on a yielding turf course.
Potential Upset: #9 Keertana – has a nice streak of stakes starts, including finishing 2nd to #6 Shared Account in the Grade II Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga. It’ll be a challenge to beat the Gozzip Girl, but the fact that she as run on a wet turf course and raced well shows that she has the potential to pull the upset.
RACHEL HIGHLIGHTS LABOR DAY WEEKEND 2009-09-04
This Labor Day weekend is full of great stakes races highlighted by the always exciting Rachel Alexandra on Saturday. The Preakness Stakes winner looks to continue her dominance this Saturday in the Woodward at Saratoga. She already has beaten all of her male and female 3-year-old opponents and now will look to beat older horses for the first time. Her victory would be historic as if her victories have not already cemented her as one of the great fillies of all time.
Sunday ‘s Pacific Classic features a battle between Colonel John and Einstein. Colonel John enters this race off of a victory in the Wicker Stakes on Del Mar’s turf course. He was a multiple Grade I winner as a 3-year-old last year taking the Santa Anita Derby and the Travers Stakes. The 5-2 morning line favorite is going to be tested by the versatile Einstein. No matter what racing surface, he always brings his ‘A’ game. This year alone, he has victories in the Santa Anita Handicap on the synthetic main track as well as on the turf course at Churchill Downs Turf Classic. He also finished third on the traditional main track surface at Churchill in the Stephen Foster.
Labor Day features some hopeful 2-year-olds in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and the Del Mar Futurity at Del Mar; as well as the Pennsylvania Derby at Philadelphia Park, the Cane Pace at Freehold, and the All-American Futurity at Ruidoso Downs.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN TRAVERS STAKES 2009-08-28
Expected Favorite:
# 4 Quality Road – The Florida Derby winner missed the entire Triple Crown due to a foot injury, but looks to be healthy. Since then he’s moved to the barn of Todd Pletcher. His comeback race was the 6 ½ furlong Grade II Amsterdam at Saratoga. He clearly showed he was the class of the field after he had a stumbled break as a well as going 5 wide and was still able to win.
Potential Upset:
#5 Our Edge – This Nick Zito trained 3-year-old is coming off of an absolutely dominating performance in the Grade III Barbaro Stakes at Delaware Park. This was his third consecutive victory and his first graded stakes win. He’ll likely go out for the lead. If he can separate himself from the rest of the field and set some slow fractions, he could be crossing the wire first. Alan Garcia, one of this meet’s top riders, will be aboard.
Also look out for Kensei and Summer Bird. Kensei has been fantastic in his last two victories, including the local prep race, the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes. He has already beaten a few runners here, including Warrior’s Reward and Charitable Man. Summer Bird is the Belmont Stakes winner. His return to the races was a solid second place finish to superstar filly Rachel Alexandra in the Grade I Haskell Invitational at Monmouth.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN SWORD DANCER 2009-08-14
Expected Favorite:
# 1 Grand Courturier – The defending champion looks to return to his top form after the last couple of disappointing races. He had to go 6 wide in the Man O’ War last time out. He could get a better trip her with the rail post. He seems brings his best toward the end of summer into the fall. Last September, he absolutely crushed the field in his 10+ length victory in the Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont. His closing kick would benefit a wet turf course, so make sure to watch out for him if it rains.
Potential Upset:
#3 Lauro – This 6-year-old has been really solid the last couple of starts, except for the Manhattan Handicap at Belmont. That start could be excused because he probably didn’t take too kindly on the yielding turf course. Losing to Gio Ponti isn’t that bad either, considering that Gio Ponti just won the Arlington Million last week. He couldn’t chase down Presious Passion in the United Nations at Monmouth, but there is nothing wrong with a solid second there. A firm turf course may be key if he wants to pull the upset.
#9 Brass Hat:
Just want to give some love to the 8-year-old gelding that keeps coming back from career ending type injuries only to return and win graded stakes races. He’s totally reinvented as a turf horse after a successful run on dirt surfaces that included a trip to the winner’s circle in the Grade I Donn Handicap at Gulfstream. He had a solid third place performance in the United Nations last out. Not sure if he can win this race, but it is the personal sentimental choice.
Welcome! 2009-07-16
Welcome to XpressBlog.
