Great Lakes Downs selections - Michael Nunamaker
Great Lakes Downs Wednesday August 29, 2007
Race #1
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 GREAT FACTS 5-2 48 83 0.00
1 NATIVE MATCH 3-1 72 76 0.43
6 RED AT NITE 3-1 56 78 0.56
4 CHARLES LARKE 10-1 60 71 2.94
5 SEM CITY 17-1 56 75 3.86
Commentary
GREAT FACTS Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
NATIVE MATCH Massive pace advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
RED AT NITE Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes.
CHARLES LARKE Class drop should help.
SEM CITY Bid but hung in last.
Race #2
Proficiency: Samples=2563 W%=32.2 Net=2.02 Net4+=2.75
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 FIRST TO FINISH 5-2 56 0 0.00
2 HOAGY'S ROCKET 3-1 56 0 0.58
7 CHEERS NO TEARS 7-1 no starts 2.47
5 Q GUNS N AMMO 10-1 56 0 2.95
6 DIATONIC 10-1 no starts 3.10
Commentary
FIRST TO FINISH Speed advantage.
HOAGY'S ROCKET Back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
CHEERS NO TEARS Not enough workouts for a first time starter.
Q GUNS N AMMO Pace advantage. Bid but hung in last.
DIATONIC Not enough workouts for a first time starter.
Race #3
Proficiency: Samples=2563 W%=32.2 Net=2.02 Net4+=2.75
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 SQUIRT GUN 6-5 56 0 0.00
1 THE ELUSIVE DUKE 8-1 56 0 4.72
5 ROYAL LARKSPUR 8-1 56 0 4.81
2 MR PROFESSOR 8-1 56 0 4.92
4 EXUBERANT PROSPECT 11-1 no starts 5.71
Commentary
SQUIRT GUN Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
THE ELUSIVE DUKE Class drop should help.
ROYAL LARKSPUR No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
MR PROFESSOR Class drop should help.
EXUBERANT PROSPECT Workout within three days helps.
Race #4
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 BRITT'S LIL NASTY 4-1 60 73 0.00
4 THATSA SOBEE 9-2 60 70 0.28
1 KI'S OF THE HEART 9-2 56 0 0.31
6 DOLLEEWOOD 8-1 56 74 1.31
8 B SURPRISED 10-1 45 0 1.79
Commentary
BRITT'S LIL NASTY Speed improved in last outing.
THATSA SOBEE Highest average purse value.
KI'S OF THE HEART Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
DOLLEEWOOD Modest speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
B SURPRISED Bid but hung in last. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 GRAND APACHE MAID 5-2 67 69 0.00
5 GUNS AND GIGGLES 7-1 62 73 1.95
8 SUMMER THUNDER 7-1 53 66 2.06
1 IDAPRESS 8-1 57 63 2.25
4 RADIO REPLY 9-1 63 66 2.47
Commentary
GRAND APACHE MAID Big pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
GUNS AND GIGGLES Highest earnings per start.
SUMMER THUNDER Modest back speed advantage.
IDAPRESS Slight speed advantage.
RADIO REPLY Two moves in last race.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 DEMABELLA 5-2 56 72 0.00
2 IMPORTANTBUSINESS 9-2 62 71 1.31
6 VALLEY TOWN 6-1 45 77 1.80
5 DIAMOND FLEET 7-1 56 82 2.02
7 SENORITA BLANCO 10-1 65 81 2.92
Commentary
DEMABELLA Three consecutive good finishes.
IMPORTANTBUSINESS Three consecutive good finishes.
VALLEY TOWN Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
DIAMOND FLEET Slight speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
SENORITA BLANCO Modest pace advantage.
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 GENERAL PAT 9-5 64 72 0.00
1 THE SCATMAN COMETH 6-1 67 76 2.14
1 TOP APPEAL 6-1 61 80 2.19
2 YOU HAVE MY WORD 8-1 64 74 2.92
3 BRUNOTHEDEACON 10-1 68 74 3.34
Commentary
GENERAL PAT Modest speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
THE SCATMAN COMETH Big back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Bid but hung in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
TOP APPEAL Last race within 5 days, a great sign! Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
YOU HAVE MY WORD Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 OUT WITH A BANG 9-5 56 65 0.00
3 PURDY TRICKY 5-2 56 69 0.72
1 BRASS DIXIE 9-2 59 72 1.78
4 BOHUNK 12-1 60 68 3.96
6 HONOLULU BLUE 19-1 65 69 4.66
Commentary
OUT WITH A BANG No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Bid but hung in last.
PURDY TRICKY Slight speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes.
BRASS DIXIE Best speed at this distance and surface.
HONOLULU BLUE Big pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Best Bet of the day
Race 3 SQUIRT GUN
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.