ALL QUIET BEFORE THE STORM
Today’s track menu is pretty extensive, but there aren’t any real standout attractions at specific tracks. Yesterday’s $82K carryover at Santa Anita bit the dust, so they’re starting from scratch today. There are a few isolated double-digit pick-six pots at Beulah ($12K) and Turfway ($10K), but that’s about the extent of the ‘dead-money’ in play today.
Guess this is what they mean when they talk about the ‘quiet before the storm.’ Tomorrow figures to be a huge day for racing fans and horseplayers alike as Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta make their 2010 seasonal debuts at Fair Grounds and Santa Anita, respectively. You can watch and wager on those races with XpressBet.
Take a look at what else is happening tomorrow on XpressBet:
XpressBet’s Beat the Host Championship pits qualified players against each other for five DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship seats, two Coast Casino Horse Player World Series spots and 25 complimentary entries in XpressBet Showdown.
Three major Kentucky Derby preps including the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs; the Rebel at Oaklawn Park; and the San Felipe at Santa Anita.
Magna 5 begins with the 10th race at Laurel Park at 4:52 pm ET. The wager also includes the 4th at Santa Anita; 9th at Gulfstream; 4th from Golden Gate and 5th at Santa Anita.
XpressBet RaceChat covers the complete card at Gulfstream Park and the entire card at Santa Anita. Join hosts Jeremy Plonk, Joe Kristufek, Brian Spencer, NBC Sports personality Bob Neumeier and racing fans from around the nation as they trade handicapping angles and observations in real time for FREE!
Actually, in addition to the racing storm noted above, there is some strong weather in the cards for the Northeast Saturday, so, keep that in mind as you do you handicapping and check for local scratches and changes.
Race On!
On Track
COLLISION COURSE
Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Horse of the Year, and Zenyatta, runner-up in the voting for that prestigious honor, are on a collision course destined to bring them together for the first time Friday, April 9 in the $5 million Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. It’s a confrontation racing fans have been dreaming about since last summer.
But first, there are some details to attend to. Rachel Alexandra will spar with four overmatched opponents Saturday in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes, a $200,000, one mile and one-sixteenth stakes event custom-built for her return to the races, and her first outing since Sept 5 when she held on by a head to win the Woodward Stakes against males at Saratoga.
This isn’t March Madness; Rachel Alexandra doesn’t have to win the Ladies to advance to the title game, but she certainly should—she’s 1-5 on the morning line.
Any horse returning from an extended layoff can be ripe for an upset; and the bigger the star, the greater the fall. That’s because the public usually bets with its collective heart based on what’s already happened instead of with its head on what realistically can happen. In Rachel’s case the past is nearly overwhelming.
Forget that she’s won 11 of 14 starts and earned just under $3 million. Forget that the last time she lost a race was in 2008. Forget her spectacular Kentucky Oaks tour-de-force, her Preakness domination, her Mother Goose annihilation, her Haskell coronation and her Woodward desperation. Impossible? Yes. That record and those performances are indelibly etched into the minds of racing fans. And that’s why she’ll be 1-5 on Saturday.
But what’s happened in the six months since the Woodward?
Well, there was a couple months of vacation time, you know, a chance to smell the alfalfa. And then it was back to work. Rachel Alexandra’s training regime was interrupted by an unusually wet winter at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Her trainer, Steve Asmussen, one of the best in the game, has been publicly pleased with the work he’s been able to give his filly. But not everyone agrees with the trainer’s assessment. Some feel Rachel Alexandra’s training has been less than sensational leading up to Saturday’s scrimmage. Specifically, critics question her repeated lead changes through the stretch in her final serious six-furlong breeze. Now, multiple lead changes normally aren’t a positive sign, especially with an experienced horse. But this is no normal animal. Rachel Alexandra is a raging, free-running beast; a bundle of pent-up speed and spirit who hasn’t been allowed to do much more than merely stretch her legs since September. Worrying about trivialities like lead changes with her is like the ’27 Yanks fretting over Babe Ruth’s weight.
Think of Saturday’s race as a scrimmage for Rachel Alexandra--a chance to knock the rust off, to clear the cobwebs, to oil the machinery. And that’s exactly what trainer Steve Asmussen is looking for on Saturday. When she turns into the stretch he wants to see smoke…so he can expect fire next time in the Apple Blossom against Zenyatta.
Can Rachel Alexandra realistically lose Saturday? No. Will she be 100% fit and at the peak of her game? No. Launch date for that mission is April 9.
Meanwhile, in this corner, is the challenger Zenyatta. Her last race was November 7, when she exploded past males apologizing to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It was her 14th consecutive win in an undefeated career. She has earned just under $5.5 million. With a record like that it’s hard to imagine that she’s the challenger and not the champ. But these things happen. Hurting her title run last season was the fact that she made just five starts and all were on artificial surfaces. Her trainer John Shirreffs thinks she’ll be even better on natural dirt. Now that’s a downright scary thought!
Unlike Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta didn’t stop training after the Breeders’ Cup. She posted several, well-spaced, leisurely, recorded works at her home base of Hollywood Park, initially just for exercise as she was slated to be sent to the breeding shed following the Breeders’ Cup. However, a funny thing happened to Zenyatta on her way to becoming a mother: she acted like she wanted to remain a career woman. Retirement plans immediately were scrapped and serious training resumed.
By all accounts, Zenyatta has trained spectacularly for her 2010 debut in Santa Anita’s Santa Margarita Saturday. And, this is no scrimmage for her. It’s a Grade I race with legitimate foes. She won’t need her ‘A’ game any more than Tiger Woods used to need his to win a tournament, but she’ll need to keep it in the fairways and chip and putt well enough. The Santa Margarita is a handicap and at first it appeared that Zenyatta might have to carry enough weight in the race to make a contestant from The Biggest Loser drool. But the folks in the racing office at Santa Anita know where they’re bread is buttered and they offered her a reasonable impost of 127 pounds, which her connections accepted.
Will Zenyatta win the Santa Margarita? Yes. Can she lose? It’s possible, only because any horse can lose. But, based on her training schedule, she should be primed for a top effort and further along at this stage than Rachel Alexandra.
When the Louisiana dust and California sand and polymeric binders settle Saturday evening and two of the greatest racing females in history are back at the barn munching on a fresh rack, let’s hope they’re both happy, healthy and winners on the afternoon. Then the stage will be set for one of the most anticipated horse races of this generation.
Race On!
It's Post Time
A SUPER SATURDAY
Not one, not two, not three, but four 2009 Eclipse Award winners -- Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Lookin At Lucky and She Be Wild --are scheduled to race this Saturday.
At the Fair Grounds, 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra tops a field of five in the inaugural New Orleans Ladies. A tip of the hat to everyone at that track for thinking ahead and coming up with this race late last year in the hope of attracting Rachel Alexandra. Their wish has come true.
Rachel Alexandra, who is coming off an eight-for-eight 2009 campaign for the ages, is the 1-5 morning line favorite for Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile New Orleans Ladies. She has not started since her historic victory over older males in the Grade I Woodward Stakes at Saratoga last Sept. 5. As a 3-year-old, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro became the first filly or mare to ever win the Woodward.
Entered against Rachel Alexandra are Zardana (5-1), Clear Sailing (6-1), Fighter Wing (15-1) and Unforgotten (15-1).
On paper, this is a one-horse race. The Beyer Speed Figures point that out. Rachel Alexandra earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when she won Oaklawn Park’s Martha Washington Stakes by eight lengths in her 2009 debut. That was her lowest Beyer of 2009.
The career-best Beyer Speed Figures for Rachel Alexandra’s rivals Saturday are 96 (Zardana), 94 (Unforgotten) and 92 (Fighter Wing and Clear Sailing).
After the Martha Washington, Rachel Alexandra recorded the following Beyer Speed Figures in 2009 as she ran the table:
103 Fair Grounds Oaks
101 Fantasy Stakes
108 Kentucky Oaks
108 Preakness Stakes
111 Mother Goose Stakes
116 Haskell Invitational
109 Woodward Stakes
Zardana, trained by John Shirreffs, is a Southern California shipper. Shirreffs, of course, also conditions Zenyatta. Zardana won Hollywood Park’s Bayakoa Handicap (96 Beyer) last Dec. 5 before ending up fourth in Santa Anita’s Santa Maria Handicap (90) on Feb. 13.
In the Santa Maria, Zardana finished behind St Trinians, Life Is Sweet and My Baby Baby. If Zardana couldn’t beat those three gals, it’s hard to envision her defeating Rachel Alexandra, at least as long as the “real” Rachel shows up Saturday.
I have much respect for handicapper Bob Mieszerski, formerly of the Los Angeles Times and currently with the Orange County (Calif.) Register and Today’s Racing Digest. He believes Clear Sailing has a good chance to ambush Rachel.
“If there’s a time that Rachel Alexandra might be vulnerable, this is it,” Mieszerski said the other day in the Santa Anita press box.
Clear Sailing has reeled off three straight wins at the Fair Grounds. The daughter of 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker registered a 4 1/4-length maiden victory there on Dec. 28 while making her first start since June 13. She came right back and romped to an 8 3/4-length allowance win on Jan. 17. That was followed by her first stakes victory in the Pelleteri on Feb. 13.
In the Pelleteri, Clear Sailing trailed through the early stages in a field of seven. The 4-year-old filly was fourth (four lengths off the lead) with a furlong to go. Clear Sailing closed with gusto in the final furlong to win by a neck over Fighter Wing.
Glenn Delahoussaye trains Clear Sailing. Delahoussaye, I thought, did a terrific job with multiple stakes winner Costa Rising, a Louisiana-bred star prior to his retirement from racing last year. I imagine Delahoussaye wishes he was running Costa Rising against Rachel. That’s because Costa Rising had the Beyer power to seriously challenge her.
In the summer of 2007, Costa Rising was assigned a 115 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Evangeline Mile by a little more than 12 lengths. Think that was a fluke? In his next start, Costa Rising won a one-mile allowance race at Evangeline Downs by 17 1/2 lengths. He registered a whopping 118 Beyer.
Rachel Alexandra’s best Beyer so far was her 116 in last year’s Haskell. I think the Costa Rising of the summer of 2007 would have an excellent chance of defeating Rachel Alexandra this Saturday. But even though it’s Clear Sailing and not Costa Rising facing Rachel Alexandra this weekend, I agree with Mieszerski to the extent that I would not be surprised to see Clear Sailing give Rachel a run for her money and maybe even end her nine-race winning streak.
Fighter Wing also is a daughter of Empire Maker. Jim Tafel owns the 5-year-old mare. Perhaps that owner’s name rings a bell. A few years ago he won a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby with Street Sense.
Unforgotten ran seventh in the Sunshine Millions Distaff at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 30. She won the Treasure Chest Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths on a sloppy track at Delta Downs last Dec. 4. That would suggest that the mare’s connections are doing a rain dance for Saturday, though Rachel Alexandra happens to be two for two on wet tracks. The surface was sloppy when Rachel won both the Fair Grounds Oaks and Haskell.
Zenyatta, still racing after two retirement ceremonies, has been assigned 127 pounds for this Saturday’s Santa Margarita Handicap at Santa Anita. The weight is pretty close to what I had expected. I had made 128 pounds the “morning line” favorite.
This will be Zenyatta’s first start since her historic victory in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic last Nov. 7. She became the first female to win the Classic. Zenyatta also became the first horse to win two different Breeders’ Cup races. The daughter of Street Cry had taken the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic in 2008.
Whereas Rachel Alexandra goes into her race Saturday with a nine-race winning streak, Zenyatta has won 14 in a row going into the Santa Margarita. Rachel Alexandra lost three times in 2008. Zenyatta still has never lost.
Zenyatta worked six furlongs in 1:11 4/5 last Friday at Hollywood Park. The mare covered her final quarter-mile in :23 3/5.
“Zenyatta worked in company with stablemate El Vino, her sparring partner in recent workouts,” Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen wrote. “El Vino started two lengths in front, with Zenyatta racing to the outside under regular jockey Mike Smith. Zenyatta was two lengths behind El Vino on the turn. In early stretch, Zenyatta had caught El Vino and scooted clear. She finished the work five lengths in front.”
Shirreffs was said to be thrilled with the workout.
“It always amazes me how good she looks, how she glides over the ground,” Shirreffs said. “She’s picture perfect.”
Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are scheduled to meet in the Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park on April 9. If they both start, the Apple Blossom will be worth $5 million.
LOOKIN AT THE REBEL
After Lookin At Lucky’s five-furlong workout in 1:01 1/5 last Monday at Santa Anita, trainer Bob Baffert confirmed that the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2009 would make his 2010 debut in Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes this Saturday.
In a Racing Form story by Jay Privman, Baffert said Lookin At Lucky “just cruised around there really easy” Monday. Baffert also said the Smart Strike colt actually worked six furlongs and galloped out seven furlongs. Baffert timed the colt in 1:15 and change for six furlongs.
This workout, to me, was not nearly as significant as when Lookin At Lucky drilled seven furlongs in 1:25 1/5 a week earlier. It had become very important, I felt, for the colt to have a fast/strong workout on March 1 because of his slow six-furlong workout in 1:15 2/5 on Feb. 22.
According to Baffert, Lookin At Lucky’s March 1 workout was even faster than the official time. In Ed Golden’s Santa Anita stable notes, Baffert said he had timed the colt in 1:23 and change. Whether it was 1:25 and change or 1:23 and change, it was the sort of fast/strong workout needed from Lookin At Lucky at that stage of his preparation for his 2010 debut.
Lookin At Lucky has not been under silks since winning Hollywood Park’s Grade I CashCall Futurity last Dec. 19. He has won five of six career starts. In addition to the CashCall Futurity, Lookin At Lucky posted victories last year in the Grade II Best Pal, Grade I Del Mar Futurity and Grade I Norfolk.
In his only loss, Lookin At Lucky finished second in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He lost by a head to Vale of York. I thought that provably was Lookin At Lucky’s best race last year. He did well to nearly win it considering his wide trip and having to rally in a race with a less-than-sizzling pace (:24.26, :48.78, 1:13.02).
In a national media teleconference conducted by the NTRA, Baffert said Lookin At Lucky has been on schedule for the last month despite the rainy weather in Southern California. Baffert said he would not be running the colt this Saturday if he didn’t think he’d run well, especially since he’s a “franchise” type horse.
Baffert also did allude to “the hoops” Lookin At Lucky is being asked to jump through for the first time by running in the Rebel, namely shipping out of Southern California, running with blinkers and running on the dirt.
Lookin At Lucky remains No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list this week. We’ll see if he’s still next week there after the Rebel. Here is this week’s list:
1. Lookin At Lucky
2. Eskendereya
3. Caracortado
4. Conveyance
5. Super Saver
6. Dublin
7. Jackson Bend
8. Awesome Act
9. Dave in Dixie
10. Rule
Caracortado and Dave in Dixie are slated to run this Saturday in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Caracortado, undefeated in five career starts, won the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 13. Dave in Dixie finished second in the Lewis.
Awesome Act moves onto my Top 10 list this week following his win in last Saturday’s Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. The Awesome Again colt was assigned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for his Gotham triumph.
Meanwhile, She Be Wild, voted an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old filly of 2009, is entered in Saturday’s Grade III Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay Downs. She will try to rebound after finishing fifth in Gulfstream Park’s Grade II Forward Gal Stakes on Jan. 31. The daughter of Offlee Wild punctuated her 2009 campaign with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
OSCAR TO SEABISCUIT’S “OWNER”
When Jeff Bridges was announced last Sunday as winner of the Academy Award for lead actor in recognition for his role in “Crazy Heart,” I could not help but think back to my one brief conversation with him.
Bridges played Charles S. Howard, the owner of Seabiscuit, in the 2003 film about the 1940 Santa Anita Handicap winner. I was at the Paco Gonzalez barn at Santa Anita on the morning of Oct. 22, 2002, to watch Came Home’s final workout before the Oct. 26 Breeders’ Cup Classic. At the barn, Trudy McCaffery, Came Home’s co-owner, introduced me to Bridges, who also was there to see the workout. Bridges had become friends with McCaffery.
As we all accompanied Came Home to the track from the barn, McCaffery asked me to tell Bridges about my Kentucky Derby future book wager on Came Home.
I proceeded to tell Bridges that while in Las Vegas early in the year, I had put $100 on Came Home in the Derby future book at 100-1. If Came Home won the roses, I would win $10,000.
I went on to say that, unfortunately for me, Came Home did not win the Derby. He finished sixth. I had him at 100-1. He started in the Derby at 8-1.
I also mentioned to Bridges that many people had said all spring that they thought the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby was too far for Came Home. They felt the colt proved that by finishing sixth. But then, in August, I watched Came Home win the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar against older horses going 1 1/4 miles. War Emblem finished sixth in the Pacific Classic. It was War Emblem who had won the Kentucky Derby.
Bridges seemed to listen intently to all of this. After I was finished with my tale, he waited a few minutes and then said, “Let me get this straight. You had $100 on Came Home in the Kentucky Derby at 100-1?”
“Yes,” I replied.
“And if Came Home had won the Derby, you would have won $10,000?”
“Yep.”
“And then Came Home beat the Derby winner in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar?”
I said that also was correct.
Bridges paused, and then said, “Man, I really feel for you.”
I have to say that Bridges’ sympathy seemed quite genuine to me. So while I did fail in my attempt at a $10,000 Kentucky Derby coup, at least a future Academy Award winner felt sorry for me.
END
