XB Blog

5.4.2024:

Get All of Our Kentucky Derby Day Coverage Here

By Xpressbet

Our 1/ST team has been working hard to bring you the very best coverage of horse racing's biggest event, the Kentucky Derby. Here's an easy guide of links to navigate you through Oaks and Derby Days. Saturday ‍ ‍1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide (1/ST BET team coverage, Eddie Olczyk / Jeff Siegel / Jeremy Plonk Derby betting strategies)‍ Kentucky Derby Contender Preview Videos (Eddie Olczyk)‍ Betting the Kentucky Derby Superfecta (Scott Shapiro)‍ Churchill Downs Full-Card Analysis & Picks (Jeff Siegel)‍ Kentucky Derby Analysis & Picks (Jon White)‍ Race of the Week Picks & Analysis: Turf Classic at Churchill (Jeremy Plonk)‍ Kentucky Derby Day Vulnerable Favorites (Scott Shapiro)‍ It’s Official Podcast: Kentucky Derby Handicapping Hot Topics (Jeff Siegel, Jeremy Plonk)‍ 1/ST Call Podcast: Kentucky Oaks, Derby & Undercard Analysis (Jeff Siegel, Jeremy Plonk)‍ Preakness Future Wager: Meet the Contenders (1/ST BET)‍ Preakness Future Wager: Selections (Scott Shapiro)

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5.4.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Saturday, May 4, 2024

By Xpressbet

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5.4.2024:

Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know + Prime Plays Video - Santa Anita | Saturday, May 4, 2024

By Jeff Siegel

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. * The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. * * Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. View Jeff Siegel's Prime Plays Video ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B Main Ticket: 1-Scatify; 3-Island Cruiser. Backups/savers: none Forecast: The Sadler barn holds the aces with Scatify arguably the best of the speed types and Island Cruiser (assuming he’s ridden properly) the most dangerous of the closers. The former has no option but to be sent from the rail and based on our pace projection should be the controlling speed. ‘Cruiser’s best race was when he was held up early and allowed to blast home. Hope they go back to that strategy today. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 3-Cowboy Mike. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Cowboy Mike is starting to get good for Baffert and seems well-placed to extend his winning streak to three. Fresh from earning a career top number against a lesser allowance field in late March, the Smiling Tiger gelding employs an effective stalking style combined with a good late kick and should be able to settle into an ideal early position and have every chance from there. However, at 6/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering much wagering value. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C Main Ticket: 5-Queen’s Code; 1-Pioneer Prince. Backups/savers: 2-Hawker. Forecast: There are several races on today’s card that we really won’t want to get too involved with. This is one of them. Queen’s Code is the second choice at on the morning line t 5/2 behind Pioneer Prince (8/5) and they could finished one-two in either order. Quite frankly, we don’t trust either one, but in a shallow field the race could easily be dominated by the chalk. ‘Code comes from a cold barn and has so far preferred to finish second (five times) rather than first (once), but he had a right to be a short horse last time out when returning off a long layoff and the stable’s second-off-the-bench stats are reasonably solid. ‘Prince is slow on numbers (they’re shrinking) but he adds blinkers and could improve. Tread lightly here. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 4: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 1-Antonsen Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Antonsen has burned money in his last pair but gets another chance at the same maiden $50,000 level and should graduate eventually, maybe even today. He’s got only one way to go from the rail, on the front end for as far as he can. He really should be able to outrun this modest group, but at 6/5 on the morning line it’s almost not worth the bother. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 5: Post: 2:46 PT Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 1-Notime for Squalls Backups/savers: 6-Ok Rose; 8-Orderly Transition (GB). Forecast: There are several reasons for Notime for Squalls to step forward in this maiden $50,000 turf miler for fillies and mares. This will be her first try in a seller, her first around two turns (with the prerequisite two recent sprints to have her sharp), the benefit of the rail draw which ensures a ground-saving trip, and a recent training track breeze that caught the eye. She’s still trying to find her proper level, but if she improves at all, she should fit nicely against this group. In a race that has several contenders with a winning chance, let’s try a gamble on this M. Glatt-trained filly with the expectation that she’ll enjoy at this longer trip. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 6: Post: 3:25 ET Grade: C+ Main Ticket: Dancing Dana 2-Woodbine Way; 6-Wrong Turn Cupid. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Dancing Dana is cozily drawn outside and projects to be on the lead or pressing the pace without undue pressure. She has back numbers than can win and has hit the board in five of seven career starts over the local main track. Woodbine Way drops to her lowest level, shows the popular blinkers off angle, tries the main track, and is long overdue for a win. The S. Miyadi-trained mare has never won on dirt but against this group the surface may not matter much. Wrong Turn Cupid has solid form in mixed breed races at Los Alamitos that chart okay in this league. She actually may be the most dependable of the lot. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 7: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B- Main Ticket: 5-Planetario (Brz); 6-War At Sea; 3-Gold Phoenix. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: This group knows each other well. Whose turn will it be today? Planetario (Brz) chased home Missed the Cut in his last pair but won’t have that one to worry about today. This mile and one quarter distance is his favorite trip, so we’re expecting the South American import to be along in time. War At Sea is racing in sharp form and shows three wins over the local turf track. The son of War Front has never been this far but there’s no reason he won’t handle 10 furlongs. Gold Phoenix was given a run in his seasonal bow when unplaced in the American S.-G3 last month and should get serious today. If he still has it, the six year old gelding will be running on late. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: C+ Main ticket: 6-War On the West; 3-Dance Man; 4-Last Call Paul. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: War On the West is a fresh face in a soft state-bred maiden claiming abbreviated sprint. He’s trained like he has some talent and a little will go a long way against this group, so let’s take a shot in a wide open fray. Dance Man appears to be the best of the known element, for whatever that’s worth. He’s got early speed and should stick better at this distance against this group. Last Call Paul has hit the board in half of his 10 career starts and should be a threat with anything close to his best race, according to his numbers. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 9: Post: 5:43 PT Grade: B+ Main ticket: 4-Hurricane Way Backups/savers: 10-British Isles; 12-Indespensable. Forecast: Hurricane Way was ignored on the tote in his debut (36-1) but really caught the eye with flying home to miss by a nose before galloping out far in front in an extended maiden sprint over the local lawn last month. The jump to a mile and one-eighth is a challenging one, even though he’s bred to run this far, but in a race where most of these have middling form let’s try the fresh face with arguably the most upside at 6-1 on the morning line. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 10: Post: 6:13 PT Grade: B- Main ticket: 7-Damazio; 6-The Big Cheeseola; 4-Mobe Town. Backups/savers: none Forecast: We’ll triple this modest $16,000 restricted (nw-2) claiming sprint and hope that at least one of them fires. Damazio faced much tougher rivals in a race that he surely needed off a long layoff in late March and seems sure to benefit from that tightener today. The J. Mullins-trained gelding shows a strong, healthy series of workouts in the interim and should improve enough to pose a serious threat at 7/2 on the morning line. The Big Cheeseola graduated in a soft maiden $50,000 dash last month with a respectable figure and is realistically spotted today in his first race facing winners. If he can turn in two alike, he’ll be right there. Mobe Town is another class dropper that has numbers that make him a major player against this group. He’ll be part of the pace throughout. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 11: Post: 6:43 PT Grade: C+ Main ticket: 9-Thrumps Dream (Ire); 7-Hennys Crazy Train; 4-Madiha Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for older fillies and mares that has several possibilities. We’ll try to get by using just three, but you should include as many as your budget allows. Thrumps Dream (Ire) just won at this level, was claimed for $50,000, and tries for a repeat for new trainer S. Knapp. She retains J. Hernandez and will stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time, but with three wins over the local lawn she looks formidable once again. Hennys Crazy Train, in the frame in each of her last six starts, is another trying a mile and one-eighth for the first time. She’ll be on or near what projects to be a moderate pace throughout, so she will have every chance to get the trip. Madiha, first or second in seven of 14 outings over the Santa Anita lawn, figures to at least get a piece of it again today.

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5.4.2024:

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, May 4, 2024

By Al Cimaglia

Hoosier Park has a 12-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 9 (8:08 PM EST) 1-Toy's For You (5-1)-Has trouble finishing miles but is in a good spot to get an efficient trip. Fits and the Plano trainee could get a suck-around trip and post the 1st win of the meet. 2-Niko Man (4-1)-Will need its best at this class but Niko likes to win. Has taken pictures in 8 of 18 starts and has captured 4 of 11 races here. John De Long will have the Rucker trainee racing near the top of the stack. 8-Swingforthefences (6-1)-Has drawn post 8 in 2 of the last 3 races and both times was used early to get a good seat. Beat the class below 3 races back. Comes back in sequence tonight and will look for a strong bounce back effort at a price. Race 10 (8:30 PM EST) 4-Elegant A (7/2)-Has found the going tough since arriving from MVR 3 races back. Gets both post and class relief here. May have meet a beatable field. 6-JK'S Shining Star (8-1)-Went the back-half in 55.1 last time but was too far back. Marvin Luna has had success with the mare when getting a good early seat. Will look for an aggressive drive and the price is right to take a swing. 9-Some Big Dream (4-1)-Looked good winning in the 2nd start of the season. Regular driver Joey Putnam returns but could be overlooked with this post draw. Does well at HoP (8-6-0-1) and this mare lands in a field with mostly 4-year-olds like her. Race 11 (8:52 PM EST) 4-Brookview Bolt (6-1)-The price is right, but not sure what to expect. Can dance with this kind winning on 4-6, but then broke stride the next week from the 8-hole. Put in a flat line on 4-20 and should be in the hunt at a price if dialed on high. 7-Dover In Motion (6/5)-Macomber trainee wins on smaller ovals as well as here. Has taken pictures in 19 of 38 lifetime and had an 8-race winning streak before being out away. Qualified nicely on 4-27 and this race will probably need to go through the classy 5-year-old. Race 12 (9:14 PM EST) 4-Feetmadefordancin(6-1)-Joel Smith 4-year-old is 0-6 on the year and its form has been dull. Should fit and gets a new set of hands in Mike Oosting. Will look to an old Illinois connection to provide a spark at a healthy price. 6-Splash Of Pink (7/2)-Mohawk shipper put in a needed start here on 4-27. This is a big track horse that has beaten better and is a main threat if brings a top try. 0.50 Late Pick 4 1,2,8/4,6,9/4,7/4,6 Total Bet=$18 Check me out on Twitter!

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5.3.2024:

Get All of Our Team Kentucky Derby and Oaks Coverage Here

By Xpressbet

Our 1/ST team has been working hard to bring you the very best coverage of horse racing's biggest event, the Kentucky Derby. Here's an easy guide of links to navigate you through Oaks and Derby Days. ‍ Friday ‍ 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide: Kentucky Oaks Picks & Betting Strategy (Millie Ball) ‍Meet the Contenders: Kentucky Oaks (Jeremy Plonk)‍ Churchill Downs Full-Card Analysis & Picks (Jeff Siegel)‍ Kentucky Oaks-Turf Classic-Kentucky Derby Pick 3 Analysis (Scott Shapiro)‍ $25K Exacta-Thon Kentucky Oaks Friday Picks (Dustin Fabian)‍ 1/ST Call Podcast: Kentucky Oaks, Derby & Undercard Analysis (Jeff Siegel, Jeremy Plonk)‍ Preakness Future Wager: Meet the Contenders (1/ST BET) ‍ Saturday ‍ ‍1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide (1/ST BET team coverage, Eddie Olczyk / Jeff Siegel / Jeremy Plonk Derby betting strategies)‍ Kentucky Derby Contender Preview Videos (Eddie Olczyk)‍ Betting the Kentucky Derby Superfecta (Scott Shapiro)‍ Churchill Downs Full-Card Analysis & Picks (Jeff Siegel)‍ Kentucky Derby Analysis & Picks (Jon White)‍ Race of the Week Picks & Analysis: Turf Classic at Churchill (Jeremy Plonk)‍ Kentucky Derby Day Vulnerable Favorites (Scott Shapiro)‍ It’s Official Podcast: Kentucky Derby Handicapping Hot Topics (Jeff Siegel, Jeremy Plonk)‍ 1/ST Call Podcast: Kentucky Oaks, Derby & Undercard Analysis (Jeff Siegel, Jeremy Plonk)‍ Preakness Future Wager: Meet the Contenders (1/ST BET)‍ Preakness Future Wager: Selections (Scott Shapiro) ‍

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5.3.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Friday, May 3, 2024

By Xpressbet

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5.3.2024:

Scott Shapiro: Vulnerable Favorites on Saturday's Kentucky Derby Day Card

By Scott Shapiro

The stars as always will be out on America’s biggest day of thoroughbred racing, which as a fan is always awesome. It also can present opportunities at the windows with big name horses or runners for high profile connections taking a bit more money than perhaps they should. Let’s take a look at a few horses listed as the morning line choice that could be vulnerable on Derby Day. Race 2: #6 Scylla (6-5 morning line) The regally-bred daughter of Tapit was awesome on debut at Keeneland a little less than thirteen months ago coming from off the pace to beat a legitimate filly in Zeitlos. The full-sister to 2.2-million-dollar earner, Tacitus, won right back at the one-turn mile distance here at Churchill last June, but as often as the case with big number debut winners, her speed figures/performance ratings declined. We also did not see her again until this March. Clearly something went wrong after getting an already slightly late start to the races. When she made it back to the afternoons, she lost at 2-5 despite running a big figure in Florida and then failed again as the chalk in the Doubledogdare (G3) in Lexington on April 19th. Understandably, the public will see a class drop out of graded stakes company and a filly that has run the fastest races and flock to that runner, but I have concerns. She has burnt a ton of money already in 2024 and clearly had some sort of issues going to the sidelines for over nine months after just two tries. She can win, but it will be without me at a likely short price. She makes for an intriguing fade in early horizontal wagers that have a number of chalks that look somewhat beatable. Race 4: Knicks Go Overnight Stakes: #6 Best Actor (5-2 ML) This 5YO son of Flatter enters the first stakes race on Derby Day off of a pair of defeats against graded stakes foes in New Orleans for trainer Brad Cox. Prior to those losses though, he was an impressive 5 for 9, including a perfect 2 for 2 record over the Churchill Downs main track. His fastest efforts have come when he is loose on the lead going the one-turn 8-furlong configurations in Louisville and Aqueduct, but it is unlikely Flavien Prat has him on an uncontested lead with a lot of other early zip signed on in this year’s Knicks Go. The 5-2-morning line favorite is capable of getting to the wire first with the decrease in competition and the return to Louisville, but he is very difficult to trust. He has had really good trips and been unable to seal the deal and perhaps we have already seen the best he has to offer. I look forward to fading him in the start of a middle Pick 4 that kicks off here, as well as the All Dirt Pick 5 that concludes with the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. Race 10: Churchill Downs Stakes (Grade 1): #6 Zozos (3-1 ML) Brad Cox appears poised to have yet another big Derby weekend, but does send out another vulnerable favorite in this 7-furlong dash for a million bucks over the main track. Zozos won the Knicks Go on Derby Day a year ago besting Kupuna by less than a length and won 2 of 4 following that early May stakes score, but disappointed big time in his trip out west for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He simply was terrible at Santa Anita. The son of Munnings has been on the sidelines since. The fact Cox brings the Barry and Joni Butzow homebred back in a Grade 1 tells me he must be training forwardly, but maybe the options were somewhat limited and the field for this year’s Churchill Downs far from intimidating. That said there are horses coming into this race in the best form of their career with some recency that appear poised for a huge performance. #3 Bo Cruz makes a good deal of sense as does #4 Mr. Wireless who cutback to one-turn at Fair Grounds and was awesome for trainer Bret Calhoun. Let’s take a shot against the morning line choice to kick off the final Pick 5 on Derby Day 2024. Best of luck on what should be an incredible day of racing in the Blue Grass!

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5.3.2024:

Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know + Prime Plays Video - Santa Anita | Friday, May 3, 2024

By Jeff Siegel

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B Main Ticket: 1-R Heisman Backups/savers: none Forecast: Here’s the first 2-year-old race of the season. R Heisman has produced two recent bullet drills that surely will attract plenty of action on the tote. The L. Mendez-trained colt looks cranked and ready in this abbreviated dash for state-bred runners and almost certainly will go lower than his morning line of 5/2. On paper, he’s a logical short price rolling exotic single in a race that most likely will offer little wagering value. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: A- Main Ticket: 6-Bit’s Tiger Magic Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Bit’s Tiger Magic was worn down late at 3/5 in her debut in mid-March by a subsequent stakes winner but then returned at 6/5 to make amends last month as expected by seven widening lengths over this course and distance while under wraps through the lane. The daughter of Smiling Tiger returns on the one level raise in a race that she projects to dominate right back in gate-to-wire fashion, so at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she’s another logical rolling exotic single at a potentially odds-on price. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 3: Post: 2:08 ET Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 4-Max’s Maxine. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Max’s Maxine stretches out for the first time and has the pedigree and steady, grinding running style to enjoy this mile trip. She’s not particularly fast on numbers but is good enough against this modest maiden $20,000 group of fillies and mares and based on the race she exits – she was well clear of the third runner, who was a next out winner – the R. Francis-trained sophomore appears ready to graduate. Her morning line of 3-1 isn’t bad if you can get it. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 4: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B- Main Ticket: Enjoy It Strait 7-Giovinazzo; 3-Don’t Swear Dave Backups/savers: none. Forecast:. Enjoy It Strait, much improved this year with back-to-back wins following a long layoff for trainer M. Glatt, earned a career top figure in his most recent score over this course and distance in a state-bred first level allowance affair in mid-March and appears properly spotted once again in this $40,000 turf miler for older horses. With his two “win” riders A. Fresu and F. Prat out of town in Kentucky, one of the barn’s “go-to” jockeys, K. Frey, picks up the mount. From a pace projection standpoint, the son of Southern Image should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position and have dead aim at the head of the lane. Don’t Swear Dave is a three-time winner over the local lawn and returns to turf and his winning and purchase level today in his second start off a claim for S. Knapp. The son of Connect lacks tactical speed but can turn it on late and with some help up front should be heard from close home. Giovinazzo switches to top rider J. Hernandez and fits solidly on numbers. He’s been away almost seven weeks but shows a solid and healthy work tab and should be capable of firing a big shot off the bench. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 5: Post: 3:20 PT Grade: B Main Ticket: 1-Odies Memory Lane; 6-Knightwithlouis Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Here’s a split of the first race, a juvenile dash for Cal-breds. Odies Memorial Lane and Knightwithlouis have been workmates in the morning for trainer D. O’Neill and they’re hard to separate. Both have some ability, and in a field which looks rather soft, we’re inclined to use both in our rolling exotics without picking a side. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them finish one-two in whichever order. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 6: Post: 3:56 ET Grade: B Main Ticket: 7-Really Thirsty; 5-Hayley Amber. Backups/savers: 1-Truly Magical; 2-Danzig Til Dawn,. Forecast: After displaying good ability in her debut at Gulfstream Park when finishing a strong third in a grass sprint in January, Really Thirty arrived locally a month later and was bet down to favoritism at 2-1 in a state-bred maiden event on dirt. The main track experiment didn’t work – she displayed speed but steadily faded – so the daughter of Stay Thirty returns to grass, retains top rider J. Hernandez, and should be given a chance to make amends. Her work pattern isn’t flashy but its healthy and steady, so we’ll put her on top though at 9/5 on the morning line she’ll not offer a whole lot of value. Hayley Amber has hit the board in all three starts, though on pure numbers she doesn’t really match up without top pick. If nothing else, she’s a trier. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 7: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 6-Spiritual Advisor; 5-Nauvoo. Backups/savers: -Big Bet Jafinsafa. Forecast: There’s nothing to trust in this main track miler for state-bred first level allowance horses, so best advice is to tread lightly. Spiritual Advisor seems as good as any. Fourth in a similar affair last month with a less than ideal trip, the J. Bonde-trained gelding is comfortably drawn outside and should fold over into an easy pace-stalking trip and then have every chance. Nauvoo won a pair of back-to-back races by a combined 22 lengths earlier this meeting but then went stale after being claimed by C. DeAlba. If he can shake loose on the lead today, he might get brave. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 8: Post: 4:55 ET Grade: B- Main ticket: 3-Stop Digging Backups/savers 6-Smiling Forever; 4-Play My Speed. Forecast: Stop Digging is no great shakes but doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this turf sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. After two solid runner-up performances, one last summer and the other last month, the daughter of Mrazek should be ready to earn her diploma. The barn is 0-for-25 this year – not exactly a sign of confidence – but with blinkers being added and two easy breezes since raced to tick her over there should be no excuses.

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