BREEDERS’ CUP DAY, PART ONE
The first of 14 Breeders’ Cup races stretched out over two days kicks off at 3:35 pm ET this afternoon and you can wager on each and every race right here with XpressBet. If you need some batting practice before the BC races, two Oak Tree allowance races precede Cup festivities beginning at 2:15 pm ET.
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You wait all year for Breeders’ Cup to arrive. Well, now it’s here. Enjoy it!
Race On!
On Track
CLASSIC CONTEMPLATIONS
It’s the big dance. The main event. The ‘Thrilla in R-K-D-Ya.’ Five million simoles on the line at a mile and one-quarter over the Pro-Ride. The track’s fake, but the money’s real. Also real are the accolades to the winner. Horse of the Year? Maybe. If a certain lady comes home first and enough voters simultaneously are stricken with Alexandra Amnesia. Otherwise, the 26th Breeders’ Cup Classic is pretty much all about the Benjamins. And, of course, future stud fee prices (more cha-ching) if the winner happens to have the goods still residing between his hind legs. Geldings need not apply.
But all of that means nothing to you and I. We’re horseplayers looking to cash a ticket in one heck of a difficult race. There are so many different ways to go in this one it will make your head spin. You could just back Zenyatta and root for her to retire undefeated. Or, you could get behind Einstein, the old man, and pray he’s got one more in the tank. Or, there’s Gio Ponti with his turf-to-synthetic angle. Or, maybe you like Richard’s Kid to pull off a Classic double (Del Mar and Breeders’ Cup, that is). The list of wagering options doesn’t end there, either. There’s the Derby winner, two Travers winners, a couple of Euro invaders and so on. The list of possible winners nearly is endless—at least up to the number 13.
In order to help you make up your mind, here’s one man’s opinion of the Breeders’ Cup Classic field horse by horse:
1. Mine That Bird—Wooley/Borel—Lightening struck for this one on the first Saturday in May. He won the Derby at 50-1, followed that up with a fine Preakness effort, and a decent Belmont after that. He disappointed in the West Virginia Derby, had a throat operation and then finished sixth in the Goodwood. After that race jockey Calvin Borel said that ‘Bird wasn’t handling the Santa Anita track surface. That’s not good news heading into the Classic. He did work in :58 1/5 at Santa Anita since the Goodwood, but horses have worked well over the track before and not fired on game day. He seems up against it in here.
2. Colonel John —Harty/Gomez—Last year’s Travers winner has run some good races at Santa Anita. He was second by a neck last out in the Goodwood. That means he’s in good form, likes the SA strip, can get the distance and has a touch of class about him. Garrett Gomez, one of the best money riders in the game, is aboard. Lots to like about this one. Keep him around in whatever you do.
3. Summer Bird—Ice/Desormeaux—You remember him. He’s the one who took the Belmont Stakes from an injured Dunkirk and a tired Mine That Bird. Since then he has been handled masterfully by trainer Tim Ice. He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont in his last start. He never has raced on a synthetic surface, so that’s a question. There’s no doubt about his ability to handle the distance, however. He also could find himself in a great spot just behind a reasonable pace. He’s difficult to ignore, but hard to fall in love with. By the way, according to XpressBet’s Free Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide, no Travers winner has taken the Classic in the same year—that’s 0-15. You want a piece of trying to break that streak?
4. Zenyatta—Shirreffs/Smith--What can we say? She’s 13 and Oh. Undefeated, untied and un-scored upon. But this is her first time against males and her initial journey past a mile and one-eighth. She loves the surface, lives to win and delivers a ferocious closing kick when called upon. She’s had to deal with knocks against her all season declaring that she’s nothing more than a ‘California synthetic track star.’ Well, don’t look now, but this race is in California over a synthetic track. She put an exclamation point on her preparation for this race by working 1:11 1/5 at Hollywood Park where she is stabled. She may lose this race, but it won’t be for lack of trying.
5. Twice Over—Cecil/Queally—Winner of his last three starts in Great Brittan—all at a mile and one-quarter on the turf—this one comes into the race in good shape. He has no synthetic racing experience and was well-beaten by Sea the Stars, Rip Van Winkle and Conduit in the Eclipse Stake in July. Is he the ‘now’ type of horse that might jump up and surprise everyone? Perhaps, but in a field as deep as this one, he’ll have to run the race of his life to get home on top.
6. Richard’s Kid—Baffert/Solis--The Pacific Classic winner is a sharp 4-year-old from the barn of Bob Baffert. He was beaten just a neck in the Goodwood, a likely productive prep over the Santa Anita track. He’s not the kind of runner you could fall in love with in here, but he’s not chopped liver either. Keep him around on your tickets based on his recent racing and the training skill of the Great White Father.
7. Gio Ponti—Clement/Domingues--A 4-year-old turf sensation with eight grass wins in 13 turf starts. A mile and one-half on a soft grass course at Belmont was his undoing last out in the Turf Classic. He has a synthetic-course win over easier and his connections figure he’s done it all on turf, so why not take a shot in the Classic? This handicapper can’t get Gio Ponti’s fade in the Turf Classic out of his head. At 85 cents to the dollar he wasn’t supposed to lose to Interpatation last out and yet, there he was blowing a late lead. Maybe he’ll switch his turf form to artificial again, but we’re going to bet against that happening.
8. Einstein—Pitts/Leparoux--He’s a warrior. Period. He has won 11 of 28 races, acts on turf, main, wet and artificial surfaces. He hasn’t raced since Del Mar’s Pacific Classic, but what do you want from the old man? He may have lost a step, but he’s still toting his lunch-pail to work every time out. Keep him on your tickets out of respect. He would not be a huge surprise.
9. Girolamo—bin Suroor/Garcia-- This one has a bright future in front of him. He’s 3-years-old and very talented. Four wins in six races prove that. Jumping into the Classic at this point seems a bit of a reach, though. He’s a Grade II winner around a one-turn mile at Belmont. This is Grade I, two turns over Pro-Ride. Maybe next year.
10. Rip Van Winkle—O’Brien/Murtagh-- His trainer Aidan O’Brien is a master, but when he speaks about ‘Winkie he always prefaces his comments with a description of how difficult this year has been for the horse. It sounds like the trainer is fluffing up the pillow in anticipation of a soft landing for his charge in this race. O’Brien said this horse has been “swimming against the tide” this year and that “he has had loads of problems.” In fact, O’Brien originally entered Mastercraftsman in the race just in case ‘Winkie didn’t make the starting gate. Now, in his corner is the fact that he has faced some of the best runners in Europe and fared well. But the trainer’s negativity’s got me spooked. At a short price he’s not in my Classic plans.
11. Regal Ransom—bin Suroor/Migliore--Another 3-year-old with decent credentials, he won the Super Derby wire to wire at Louisiana Downs in his last start. His claim to fame before that was an upset of heavily-favored stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby in Dubai. His only try over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita was atrocious, but he is training very well for this.
12. Quality Road—Pletcher/Velasquez-- One of the top ones heading toward the Kentucky Derby this year he stubbed his toe and had to miss the big dance. He then switched from the barn of Jimmy Jerkens to Todd Pletcher and returned to the races triumphantly in the Grade II Amsterdam—a six and one-half furlong sprint at Saratoga. Stretched out to a mile and one-quarter off that for the Travers, he came up short on a sloppy track. He ran well to be second to Summer Bird in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in his last start. He has never raced on a synthetic surface and has failed to win in two tries at the Classic distance. He does have speed and there’s not much of that in this race. The flip side is that speed isn’t particularly dangerous on the Pro-Ride surface.
13. Awesome Gem—Dollase/Flores--This 6-year-old gelding has had a nice career, almost $1.7 million in the bank and a trip to Hong Kong on his resume. He finishes second more than he wins (30:6-11-3), though, and he’s only one for 12 on synthetic surfaces. He’ll need to some with his A-plus game here.
Ones to Beat—2 Colonel John, 4 Zenyatta
Ones to Include—8 Einstein, 6 Richard’s Kid
Exotic Filler—12 Quality Road, 11 Regal Ransom
One to Toss—10 Rip Van Winkle
WHAT I THINK I THINK
Here are some observations, information and general thoughts directly from Arcadia, CA., scene of the Breeders’ Cup:
FRIDAY
MARATHON
At the post position draw, an old California horseplaying buddy said to watch out for Cloudy’s Knight in the Marathon. I laughed at him. I’m not in the habit of playing 9-year-old runners trying a new surface for the first time in their lives. I’m funny that way.
Man of Iron looks good to me in here. He has artificial track experience, is a stayer and has progressed with each run this year.
Muhannak won this race last year, but his form isn’t as good this time around. Repeat BC winners usually are pretty special horses and he doesn’t seem to fit the mold.
Nite Light’s an interesting runner. He’s got pace, can stay a bit and is trained by Todd Pletcher. Lots to like.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
La Nez’s name keeps popping up in conversations. She’s a Cal-Bred trying turf for the first time with some good races on her line. She’s also 20-1 morning line and her trainer is having a career season.
Junia Tepzia invades from Italy. She’s undefeated in two starts and should improve. She’s 8-1, but may go higher. Don’t ignore this one.
Smart Seattle hasn’t run a bad one yet and she’s in good hands. She’s got a nice post and won’t have to make up a lot of ground late.
JUVENILE FILLIES
The favorite has won the past seven Juvenile Fillies, and that means Blind Luck is the one to beat.
Always a Princess has a crummy post, but Baffert and Gomez are real pluses.
Bickerson’s is one to use at a price. She raced in the Oak Leaf, so she’s had a prep over the track and will be a big price.
FILLY AND MARE TURF
Defending champ Forever Together and local hero Magical Fantasy seem best in here.
Midday is interesting invader.
FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
Looks like a three-way splint in here. Ventura looks tough as defending champ and Informed Decision is unbeaten on synthetic surfaces.
Sara Louise is training well.
LADIES CLASSIC
Catch Careless Jewel to win.
Music Note has nice resume, is training sharply and ran well here last year.
SATURDAY
JUVENILE TURF
Pounced and Viscount Nelson are two Euros you ought to use in whatever you do.
TURF SPRINT
Don’t let the defending champ, Desert Code, go off at crazy odds. He loves this course (5 for 9) and his trainer is sneaky good.
Gotta Have Her is a 5-year-old mare who’s undefeated down the hill (4 for 4). She’ll be a huge price.
Get Funky is not quite as accomplished down the hill as the other two mentioned, but he’s 2 for 5 over the course and will be a monster number in a wide-open race.
California Flag is the one they’ll all have to catch and he’s two for four over the tricky layout.
SPRINT
Gayego is training well and is the one to beat, especially since Zensational drew the rail.
JUVENILE
Give locals the edge. Favored Lookin At Lucky and Pulsion, behind that one in the Norfolk stakes are the best situated in here.
MILE
Defending champ Goldikova got a tough post, but she’s doing well. Remember how powerful she looked last year?
DIRT MILE
Midshipman has the class and speed to be dangerous.
Got a big knock on the 6/5 favorite Mastercraftsman from someone who should know what’s going on. Sometimes a knock on a 6/5 shot is better than a tout on a winner.
TURF
They won’t know which way Precious Passion went. Congrats Mary Hartman.
Race On!
It's Post Time
BREEDERS’ CUP SELECTIONS
$500,000 MARATHON (FRIDAY)
Selections: (1) Mastery, (2) Father Time, (3) Nite Light.
Sleeper: Man of Iron.
Analysis: Mastery (9-5 morning line), I believe, is one of the more probable Breeders’ Cup winners this year. He has the right combination of class and stamina to win this 1 3/4-mile marathon as illustrated by his victory in the Group I St. Leger in England on Sept. 12. Don’t forget this race is longer than it was last year. This was a 1 1/2-mile race in 2008. Mastery also ran well on a synthetic surface in England last March when he finished fourth while losing by only a half-length. Father Time (3-1) ran fourth to Mastery in the St. Leger. I think Nite Light (4-1) has the best chance of the Americans. He ran second in the Grade II Hawthorne Gold Cup. Man of Iron (8-1) is coming off a win in Ireland at 1 5/16 miles and didn’t disgrace himself when fourth in a race won by Mastercraftsman in Ireland on Polytrack. Mastercraftsman is the 6-5 morning line favorite for the Dirt Mile.
$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (FRIDAY)
Selections: (1) Lillie Langtry, (2) House of Grace, (3) Tapitsfly.
Sleeper: Junia Tepzia.
Analysis: Lillie Langtry (3-1) merits respect. She won at the Group II and Group III level in Ireland and ran third in a Group I race there as a 3-5 favorite. She has been favored in four of her six career starts. Lillie Langtry has been 6-5 or lower in her last 5 races. House of Grace (4-1) is two for two. She won her debut on the turf at Saratoga, then captured the off-the-turf Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland for trainer Ken McPeek. Tapitsfly (8-1) led all the way in the P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga the only time she’s raced on the turf. Junia Tepzia (8-1) is two for two, with both wins coming in Italy. She’s a real X-factor. Junjia Tepzia looks like she has a lot of ability and she is by one of my favorite sires, Rock of Gibraltar, who finished second in the 2002 Breeders’ Cup Mile. Rock of Gibraltar also is the sire of Turf Sprint contender Diamondrella.
$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES (FRIDAY)
Selections: (1) Blind Luck, (2) Connie and Michael, (3) Always a Princess.
Sleeper: She Be Wild.
Analysis: Blind Luck (3-1) appears the one to beat off her 2 1/2-length victory in the Grade I Oak Leaf Stakes. The last three times the Breeders’ Cup has been held at Oak Tree, the Oak Leaf winner also took the Juvenile Fillies (Phone Chatter in 1993, Halfbridled in 2003 and Stardom Bound in 2008). Connie and Michael (4-1) won her debut by 7 3/4 lengths at Keeneland. Some may feel I made Connie and Michael too low on the official morning line. But Connie and Michael was visually impressed and earned a strong 95 Beyer Speed Figure. That’s the highest Beyer by anyone in the Juvenile Fillies field. It appears to me that Connie and Michael is a filly with a lot of raw talent. So she earned respect from me on the morning line. Always a Princess (6-1), from a red-hot Bob Baffert barn, set the pace and finished second in the Oak Leaf. In her only previous start, she rallied after a troubled start to win at Del Mar. She’s probably better when not in front early. I expect Always a Princess to probably stalk in the Juvenile Fillies and she should be taken very seriously. She Be Wild (8-1) won her first three races by 7 1/4, 5 1/4 and 5 3/4 lengths before finishing second to 12-1 Negligee in the Grade I Alcibiades. It would not shock me one bit if She Be Wild regained her winning ways in the Juvenile Fillies. And she probably will be a decent price because of her loss in the Alcibiades.
$2 MILLION FILLY & MARE TURF (FRIDAY)
Selections: (1) Forever Together, (2) Magical Fantasy, (3) Midday.
Sleeper: Dynaforce
Analysis: Forever Together (5-2) won this race last year. Granted, she’s only two for five this year, but she fires every single time. It’s been more than a year since she has lost a race by two lengths or more. And Forever Together proved last year that she likes Santa Anita’s turf course. Magical Fantasy (3-1) is a on quite a roll. She’s bidding for her fifth straight victory. Magical Fantasy has reeled off three straight Grade I wins, with her most recent victory coming in the Grade I Yellow Ribbon Stakes on Santa Anita’s turf course. Trainer Paddy Gallagher has done a terrific job with this filly, who obviously must be taken very seriously in the Filly & Mare Turf. Midday (4-1) ran third in the Group I Prix de l’Opera in France on the Arc card. She certainly is a quality European. Dynaforce (8-1) is one to consider if you’re shopping for a live one at a good price. She does not like soft ground, so you can draw a line through her poor performance in the Grade I Flower Bowl at Belmont Park. She won the Grade I Beverly D. on “good” ground at Arlington Park when 7-1.
$1 MILLION FILLY & MARE SPRINT (FRIDAY)
Selections: (1) Ventura, (2) Informed Decision, (3) Sarah Louise.
Sleeper: Evita Argentina.
Analysis: Ventura (8-5) is coming off perhaps the best race of her life to win the Grade I Woodbine Mile over a tough group of males. Ventura ran second in the 2008 Woodbine Mile before winning the Filly & Mare Sprint by four emphatic lengths over Indian Blessing. Ventura finished second to Informed Decision in the Grade I Madison Stakes at Keeneland last April, but Ventura was 2-5 that day. I expect Ventura to turn the tables on Informed Decision in the Filly & Mare Sprint. But I also recognize that Informed Decision (5-2) is quite capable of winning this race and beating Ventura again. After all, Informed Decision is six for six when running on synthetic tracks. Sara Louise (9-2) is the last horse, female or male, to defeat Rachel Alexandra. Sara Louise won the Grade II Pocahontas Stakes at the 2008 Churchill Downs fall meet, with Rachel Alexandra second. In two starts this year, Sara Louise won the Grade III Victory Ride Stakes at Saratoga and narrowly lost the Grade II Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont Park. I don’t think Seventh Street (4-1) is at her best when sprinting and I don’t think Game Face (10-1) is at her best on synthetic footing. Watch out for Evita Argentina (20-1) at a big price. She beat the boys to win the Grade II San Vicente Stakes at this distance on Santa Anita’s main track last February.
$2 MILLION LADIES’ CLASSIC (FRIDAY)
Selections: (1) Music Note, (2) Careless Jewel, (3) Rainbow View.
Sleeper: Life Is Sweet.
Analysis: Music Note (9-5) comes into this race on her game. She won the Grade I Ballerina in the slop at Saratoga by 5 1/4 lengths over two-time Eclipse Award winner Indian Blessing, then cruised to a 2 1/4-length triumph in the Grade I Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park. Music Note looks poised to win the 2009 Ladies’ Classic after finishing third behind Zenyatta and Cocoa Beach in the 2008 renewal. Careless Jewel (2-1), a 3-year-old facing older rivals, is seeking her sixth straight victory. She probably will dart right to the front and try to lead past every pole. She just might do that, too. Rainbow View (6-1), also a 3-year-old, was four for four at 2. She struggled a bit early this year, but seems to have perked up during the second half of 2009. She won a Group I race in Ireland on Sept. 5 before finishing second in the Grade I E.P. Taylor Stakes at Woodbine. It bothers me a little that Rainbow View had the lead in the stretch of the E.P. Taylor and couldn’t beat 44-1 Lahaleeb. But keep in mind that John Gosden trains Rainbow View. Gosden won two Breeders’ Cup races last year (Raven’s Pass and Donativum). Life Is Sweet (8-1) could be dangerous at a nice price. Don’t forget she was good enough to finish third against males in the Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup and won the Grade I Santa Margarita Handicap on Santa Anita’s main track last March.
$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF (SATURDAY)
Selections: (1) Interactif, (2) Pounced, (3) Viscount Nelson.
Sleeper: Bridgetown.
Analysis: I’m going with Interactif (4-1). He’s two for two on the turf. Interactif won the Grade III With Anticipation on the grass at Saratoga, then was extremely impressive in taking the Grade III Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland despite a wide trip. But, honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see anybody win this race. Pounced (9-2) is a very good European shipper for trainer John Gosden. Pounced finished second in a Group I race in France on the Arc card. Viscount nelson (6-1) also is invading from Europe. He ran second in a Group II event in England on Sept. 12. Do not take Bridgetown (8-1) lightly. He’s coming off a victory in the Grade III Summer Stakes on the turf at Woodbine.
$1 MILLION TURF SPRINT (SATURDAY)
Selections: (1) California Flag, (2) Diamondrella, (3) Cannonball.
Sleeper: Lord Shanakill.
Analysis: California Flag (7-2) is the course record holder (1:11.10). How about this? The broodmare Ultrafleet has produced Cambriocorsa and California Flag. Between them, Cambriocorsa and California Flag have raced won Santa Anita’s hill 14 times, with 10 wins, two seconds and a third. California Flag is coming off a win in the Grade III Morvich Handicap down the hill at Santa Anita on opening day of the Oak Tree meet. Diamondrella has won seven of 11 starts in 2008 and 2009 combined. Cannonball (8-1), runner-up in a Group I sprint at Royal Ascot, comes off a win in Saratoga’s Commentator Stakes on Sept. 6. Lord Shanakill (8-1) had the class to win a Group I race in France on July 5. Hall of Famer Richard Mandella now is training Lord Shanakill, so beware.
$2 MILLION SPRINT (SATURDAY)
Selections: (1) Gayego, (2) Zensational, (3) Fatal Bullet.
Sleeper: Fleeting Spirit.
Analysis: This is a very tough call for me. But I’m going with Gayego (5-2), who looked so good winning the Grade I Ancient Title Stakes on Santa Anita’s main track. Zensational (7-5) is a terrific sprinter, though. He is just plain one fast dude. Fatal Bullet (9-2) has a praiseworthy record when running on synthetic tracks (11 starts, nine wins, two seconds). He was the runner-up to Midnight Lute in the 2008 Sprint. The talented European filly Fleeting Spirit (8-1) could be the upsetter.
$2 MILLION JUVENILE (SATURDAY)
Selections: (1) Lookin At Luicky, (2), D’ Funnybone, (3) Aikenite.
Sleeper: Pulsion.
Analysis: I can’t look past Lookin At Lucky (8-5), even though he drew the outside post in the field of 13. The son of Smart Strike (sire of 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Curlin) is four for four and took the Grade I Norfolk Stakes on Santa Anita’s main track for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Last year, Midshipman finished second in the Norfok for Baffert before snagging the Juvenile. From what I understand, trainer Rick Dutrow is sky high on D’ Funnybone (5-2). Since joining the Dutrow barn, D’ Funnybone has won in a laugher twice. He took the Grade II Saratoga Special by 10 1/2 lengths and the Grade II Futurity at Belmont Park by nearly five lengths. Aikenite (8-1) is dangerous based on his late surge when second in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Pulsion (20-1) could be the dark horse. He ran a respectable second to Lookin At Lucky in the Norfolk despite starting from the outside post in a field of 11.
$2 MILLION MILE (SATURDAY)
Selections: (1) Goldikova, (2) Delegator, (3) Cowboy Cal.
Sleeper: Gladiatorus.
Analysis: Goldikova (8-5) won this race last year with a scintillating burst of speed in the stretch. Her trainer, Freddie Head, says she is better than two-time Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Miesque. Head rode Miesque to those Breeders’ Cup victories. Delegator (3-1) is a top-class colt who finished third in a Group I race in England on Sept. 26. Rip Van Winkle won that Sept. 26 race and is the second favorite on the morning line for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Cowboy Cal (6-1) is coming off a win in the Grade II Oak Tree Mile on Santa Anita’s turf course. Looking for a “bomber” to win at a huge price? It could be Gladiatorus (20-1), winner of the Group I, $5 million Duby Duty Free in Dubai. After that win in Dubai, Gladiatorus went off form, but he perked up to win a Group I race in Italy on Oct. 11.
$1 MILLION DIRT MILE (SATURDAY)
Selections: (1) Mastercraftsman, (2) Bullsbay, (3) Midshipman.
Sleeper: Mr. Sidney.
Anaylsis: Mastercraftsman (6-5) looks like the most likely Breeders’ Cup winner. He would have been a contender in the Classic had his connections opted for that race. This is a much easier spot than the Classic. Mastercraftsman was 3-1 and finished second, only a length behind the sensational Sea the Stars, in a Group I race in England on Aug. 18. I would have made Sea the Stars the official morning line favorite in the Classic had he been in it. Mastercraftsman also proved he can handle a synthetic surface by winning by five facile lengths on Polytrack in Ireland. It’s all systems go for Mastercraftsman. Bullsbay (3-1) won the Grade I Whitney Handicap at Saratoga and didn’t disgrace himself when third in the Grade I Woodward Stakes at Saratoga. Bullsbay finished third in the Woodward, just 1 1/2 lengths behind the remarkable Rachel Alexandra. Midshipman (6-1) is coming off a 3 1/4-length win at Belmont Park in his 2009 debut and took the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Santa Anita’s main track in 2008. Mr. Sidney has had his share of bad trips in turf races this year. When he ran second on Keeneland’s synthetic track in 2008, he defeated Bullsbay.
$3 MILLION TURF (SATURDAY)
Selections: (1) Conduit, (2) Spanish Moon, (3) Dar Re Mi.
Sleeper: none.
Analysis: Conduit (7-5) won this race last year. A key with him, I believe, is going farther than 1 1/4 miles. He ran third at 1 1/4 miles in England on July 4 while facing the mighty Sea the Stars, then won going 1 1/2 miles in England on July 25. Conduit didn’t win the prestigious Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 1 1/2 miles on Oct. 4, but he ran well to be in the battle for the minor awards behind the victorious Sea the Stars. Conduit finished fourth in the Arc. Spanish Moon (5-2) is a class act. He finished second in the Group I, $5 million Dubai Sheema Classic last March, won a Group I race in France in June, then also won a tough Group II event in France in September. Dar Re Mi (3-1) is not a phantom contender. She was a Group I winner in England in August, also won a Group I race in France in September, then ran fifth in the Arc. I don’t really see a sleeper possibility in this race, though I certainly consider Prescious Passion (4-1) a threat to lead from start to finish, just as he did in the Group I Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship on Santa Anita’s turf course on Oct. 11.
$5 MILLION CLASSIC (SATURDAY)
Selections: (1) Zenyatta, (2) Rip Van Winkle, (3) Einstein.
Sleeper: Twice Over.
Analysis: The feeling here is Zenyatta (5-2) will win the Classic to remain undefeated in 14 career starts. I think trainer John Shirreffs has Zenyatta peaking for the race of her life. She’s four for four on Santa Anita’s main track. While it’s true that Zenyatta has never gone farther than 1 1/8 miles, the big mare acts as if she will relish 1 1/4 miles. Rip Van Winkle (7-2) warrants the utmost respect. A two-time Group I winner in England, he gave the brilliant Sea the Stars a bit of a scare in a Group I race in England on July 4 while beating 2008 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Conduit. Rip Van Winkle has raced exclusively on the turf prior to this. He’s competing on a synthetic surface for the first time in the Classic. Plus he has been battling foot problems. But Rip Van Winkle most certainly has the class and ability to potentially win the Classic. And don’t forget about Einstein (12-1). All he’s done this year is win the biggest pre-Breeders’ Cup race of the year on Santa Anita’s main track, the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap. Twice Over (20-1) is a European who has blossomed lately and no doubt will be a much bigger price in the wagering than Rip Van Winkle.
